I doubt the North Koreans get very far at all, even with no US reinforcements having arrived.
DMZ troop densities are very high and it's been fortified for 50 years.
Regarding Seoul and artillery, only a fraction of NK's tubes have the range to hit Seoul from the DMZ. A lot of articles make it look like every artillery piece they have would be firing on Seoul.
Anyway, the NKs would have invaded the SECOND they thought they'd be successful. They haven't. And the correlation of forces isn't getting any better for them. So they won't, I suspect.