Since we are talking about what is more likely to have occurred, we can safely discard "C" and "D", because they deal with belief and the ability to discover what occurred, not what is more likely. Thus, they don't answer the question. As between "A" and "B", what is more "likely" is "B", assuming that you mean the Judeo-Christian God, all-powerful, all knowing, etc. As a logical proposition, choice "B" only requires the appearance of random processes, while choice "A" requires the existence of an infinite being capable of anything and everything, including all that in encompassed by choice "B". Since we have some inklings as to what is required for "B", under the study of biology, physics, etc., and absolutely nothing on how the being described in "A" could even exist, let alone direct things, "B" is "more likely." (I am not saying that this is some attempt to "prove" that God doesn't exist {as I've been accused of in the past}, I am talking about likelihoods, here.)
Which is more likely to have caused us to be here now as we observe ourselves and the universe around us? (A) Creation by G-d in Six Days (B) Initial Creation of some archtypes (such as space-time, physics, etc and the ideations of plant, planet, star, sun, insect, animal and man) and constant tuning by G-d thereafter (C) A God-free universe and physics just popped up last nano-second in this condition (D) God-free evolution from some very primitive initial condition
You seem to be mixing cosmology, abiogenesis and biological evolution. As discussed in question one, we can eliminate the "God" theory on the likelihood question. By definition, such a God must be able to create the natural conditions which are presented as an alternate, so they are a subset of the belief in God. So whatever basis you have to believe in the existence of a God that can create the natural conditions can simply be applied to the natural conditions themselves. Thus, and again, strictly in terms of probability, that makes the God-free answers, as a logical matter, more likely. So that leaves "C" or "D." Of these, I am going to assume that you mean by "C" that the entire universe: existence, memories, history, etc., have only existed for a nano-second, and that our belief that it has lasted longer is a mere artifact of the fact that the universe blinked into existence with the appearance that these memories are real. There is no evidence for that. On the other hand, with "D", there is plentiful evidence that the universe has existed for a long, long time, and that evolution has guided the diversification of life on earth. So I would say that "D" is the most likely.