[js1138]

The odds of any specific thing happening can be calculated to approach zero without any mathematical errors and without making any bizarre assumptions.

But it has always seemed futile, to me, to calculate the odds against something that has already happened.

It's sort of like that population curve that was so optimistically foisted on us. Hey, the numbers seem reasonable, but when examined, lead to absurdities. When calculations lead to absurdities, something is wrong with the way the problem was analyzed, and the wrong formula is being used.

[AntiGuv]

Opps! Just realized I had a typo. The "true random odds" of that info reaching Heartlander (or anyone, or no one, or everyone) were one divided by infinity and not the other way around.

[Doctor Stochastic]

...the odds against something that has already happened

That would be probablity 1.**720

One could compute ex-ante probablities, but that would lead to 0 as you pointed out.

[WildTurkey]