Mapping the Global Future: Report of the National Intelligence Council’s 2020 Project

National Intelligence Council ^ | December 2004 | Unspecified

[MysticKnightOfTheSea]

In the next fifteen years, lagging economies, ethnic affiliations, intense religious convictions, and youth bulges will align to create a “perfect storm,” creating conditions likely to spawn internal conflict. Many internal conflicts generate internal displacements and external refugee flows, destabilizing neighboring countries. Although the likelihood of great power conflict escalating into total war in the next fifteen years is lower than at any time in the past century, conflicts—such as over Taiwan or between India and Pakistan—could still erupt. Over the next fifteen years, a number of countries will continue to pursue their nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons programs and in some cases will enhance their capabilities. Security will remain at risk from increasingly advanced and lethal ballistic and cruise missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles. The most worrisome trend has been an intensified search by some terrorist groups to obtain weapons of mass destruction. Our greatest concern is that these groups might acquire biological agents or less likely, a nuclear device, either of which could cause mass casualties. The key factors that spawned international terrorism show no signs of abating over the next fifteen years. The majority of international terrorist groups will continue to identify with radical Islam. By 2020 Al-Qaeda will have been superseded by similarly inspired but more diffuse Islamic extremist groups, all of which will oppose the spread of many aspects of globalization into traditional Islamic societies. Over the next fifteen years, a growing range of actors, including terrorists, may acquire and develop capabilities to conduct both physical and cyber attacks against nodes of the world’s information infrastructure. While no single country looks within striking distance of rivaling U.S. military power by 2020, more countries will be in a position to make the United States pay a heavy price for any military action they oppose.

[MysticKnightOfTheSea]

This is a fascinating report published last month by the CIA. This will give you some insight into how our intelligence community thinks about the global threats we face.

[W04Man]

When I was in the Intelligence Business, we didn't "publish" our intelligence to the world. So, is this really "intelligence" or is it something else?

[silverleaf]

what you said

[KurtAZ]

Look at the cover sheet. This is derived via "Non-Government Experts". And it is from the National Security Council, not the CIA.