Iran-Pakistan-India pipeline: the Baloch wildcard

Energy Security ^

[ddtorque]

For both energy hungry India and its swiftly growing neighbor, Pakistan, the need for natural gas is more pressing than ever. Pakistan has one of the world’s fastest growing populations and its demand for gas will expand significantly over the next two decades. India’s gas demand will almost double by 2015 and due to the decline of its reserves it will be forced to import increasing amounts of gas. As the world’s second largest gas reserve, Iran is the most geographically convenient supplier of gas to both countries.

...Pakistani Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz said the Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline is "a win-win proposition for Iran, India, and Pakistan," that could serve as a durable confidence-building measure, creating strong economic links and business partnerships among the three countries.

But this win-win proposition seems to be threatened by terrorists. A few days after Iran’s Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh arrived in New Delhi to discuss the future of the pipeline, terrorists in Pakistan blew up two gas pipelines sending a message to all parties involved that the "pipeline of peace" might be anything but peaceful.

[thoughtomator]

Those aren't terrorists, those are guerillas. What defines a terrorist is a willingness to go after civilians. Pipelines are not civilian targets. If Pakistan wants to find terrorists it need only look to its own eastern border.

[contemplator]

Iran is a powderkeg. It would not be wise for India to pin any long term hopes on this.

[spetznaz]

Ping.

[ddtorque]

Those aren't terrorists, those are guerillas. What defines a terrorist is a willingness to go after civilians.

beg to differ - these guys do target civilians. From the article:
"On the night of January 8 terrorists belonging to the Baloch Liberation Front (BLF) fired rockets at the pipeline and exchanged gunfire with the security forces for several hours. During the fire exchange the pipeline caught fire, disrupting supply to a power plant. Six people were killed. In a separate incident the BLF launched an attack on the pipeline close to Sui township, 250 miles north of Karachi. This area alone produces about 45 percent of Pakistan’s total gas production. Some rockets also exploded close to the main pipeline supplying gas to Sindh and Punjab provinces but did not cause any damage. On January 11 Baloch gunmen stormed facilities operated by state-run Pakistan Petroleum Ltd (PPL) in Sui. The gunmen overpowered the guards and damaged pipelines and a purification plant. Gunmen also Kidnapped 10 employees of the Water and Power Development Authority (APDA), Pakistan’s main water and power utility. The attacks disrupted gas and power production as well work in fertilizer and chemical plants. "

[thoughtomator]

I'm sorry I must be misreading it... which part refers to acts that target civilians?

[Saberwielder]

Iran is a powderkeg. It would not be wise for India to pin any long term hopes on this.

Iran is much more stable than Saudi Arabia, when it comes to energy producers. India would be foolish to get anything through Pakistan as well, which is another powderkeg.

Iran will rejoin the modern world soon. The days of the Ayatollahs are numbered.

[ddtorque]

I'm sorry I must be misreading it... which part refers to acts that target civilians?

"Gunmen also Kidnapped 10 employees of the Water and Power Development Authority (APDA), Pakistan’s main water and power utility"

[thoughtomator]

OK, that part qualifies.

[ddtorque]

here is more info about the Baloch Liberation Army. It's definitely a terrorist group. One more example: "The BLA has recently claimed responsibility for the bombing of a crowded market in Quetta, which killed 11 and injured 27." http://db.mipt.org/Group.jsp?groupID=3961

[SunkenCiv]

Pakistan pushes India on pipeline
by Tim Weber
Saturday, 29 January, 2005

Better economic relations between India and Pakistan depend on both countries joining forces to build a gas pipeline to Iran, Pakistan's prime minister has said... He also promised to push for the privatisation of 100% of Pakistan's state-owned companies. Even the Pakistani state oil firm had been sold off, he said, despite security concerns in some quarters, he added. So far Pakistan has plans to privatise about 85% of all state firms... But Mr Aziz has ruled Indian companies out of bidding to buy Pakistani firms slated for privatisation... Asked by an Indian businessman whether his company could bid for Pakistani infrastructure projects, Mr Aziz said this would not be possible for now... Pakistan is talking to Iran, Qatar and Turkmenistan about securing energy supplies.

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[SunkenCiv]

Baloch rebels attack gas town in Pakistan again
New Kerala ^ | 1/10/05
Posted on 01/10/2005 11:08:25 AM PST by Straight Vermonter
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1317863/posts

Pakistan bulldozes houses after gas field attack
Reuters ^ | Jan. 20, 2005 | Amir Zia
Posted on 01/21/2005 4:15:11 AM PST by Qaz_W
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1325270/posts

Pakistan joins US in attacking Iran over support for terror
The Sunday Telegraph (U.K.) ^ | 01/23/05 | Massoud Ansari
Posted on 01/22/2005 3:43:11 PM PST by Pokey78
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1326363/posts

India suspects A Pakistan and Bangladeshi Nexus
SATribune ^ | Jan 18, 2005 | Arun Rajnath
Posted on 01/24/2005 1:02:39 AM PST by Srirangan
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1327088/posts