[lwoodham]

I have been thinking about this. I agree that Monte Carlo analysis is surely being done on this. That means they know minimum(0 in case of a strike) and maximum distances of passage based on 1 in 43 odds. I have been trying to figure out if the maximum passage distance includes the moon within the possible strike cone. I realize that much more data will be required to know where the moon will be in orbit at that point in time. The rock hitting the moon would not probably cause any appreciable orbit change since the moon's mass is much greater, but would provide some incredible chances for science and the greatest light show of all time.

[tortoise]

Impact probability has been revised upward per JPL/NASA, now 2.7% (1:37 roughly). As I mentioned in other threads, much of the margin of error is mecessary due to suspect calibrations and missing parameters for the orbital models. Once we get the data problem sorted out, the orbital elements should solidify very nicely.