This is the first summary of 2005! Media is still heavily focused upon the Christmas Tsumani/earthquake as it is now being referred to. The impact upon this region of the world in respect to the development of Islamic terrorism will be interesting because of the growth that was occurring in the region. Terrorists have already been trying to control the distribution of relief supplies. Expect more to come. We in the US are also past a significant window for a mass-casualty terrorist event now that the holidays are past. I am going to try to monitor other more specified threats in other parts of the world this year just to gauge the accuracy of the sources.
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01/03/04 Current National Homeland Defense threat level is YELLOW
1. Attack threat windows
01/03/04 Primary Window: January 20, 2005 - Presidential inauguration
01/03/04 Secondary windows:
Feb. 6 Super Bowl in Jacksonville, Fla.
11/23/04 This post is being maintained for a historical track - Godzilla
ACSA has predicted a nuclear attack within the next 3 months. This window ends approximately 02/23/05
2. Attack Indicators
01/03/05 There are no clear attack indicators for the US. Other regions of the globe have indicators as described in Current Terrorist Operations
3. Current Terrorist Operations
Al-Qa'ida / OBL
01/03/05 Discussions in the media analyzing OBL’s recent audio and videos suggest that he is becoming increasing concerned about being marginalized not by bombs but by ballot boxes. Recent pronouncements that it is not Islamic to vote are current indicators.
Iran
01/03/05 Continues to pursue nuclear weapon capabilities.
Iraq
12/30/04 Dec 30 (Reuters) - U.S.-led forces in Iraq have captured a senior member of the al Qaeda-linked network led by Jordanian militant Abu Musab al-Zarqawi in a raid in Baghdad, the Iraqi government said on Thursday. It said Fadil Hussain Ahmed al-Kurdi was captured along with two other suspected insurgents.
"Ridha was responsible for facilitating communications between al Qaeda and the Zarqawi terror networks as well as coordinating the movement of terrorists in and out of Iraq," a government statement said.
http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/MAR031022.htm
Indonesia
Monitoring - AQ attack watch through 02/15/05
Australia and Japan issue warnings on 15 Dec. over threat to a foreign hotel in Indonesia, hotel identified as Hilton Hotel in Jakarta. Uncertain if tsunami relief will impact terror plans. - Godzilla
1/2/05 The Indonesian military also said on Sunday it had killed three GAM -- the Free Aceh Movement -- separatists in north Aceh after they obstructed a humanitarian team, adding to claims from both sides accusing each other of initiating clashes this week.
"If there are attempts from GAM to disrupt the (aid) process that we're carrying out it is something I would regret. Although I have not received a detailed report," Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono told reporters.
http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=topNews&storyID=7218374
Kuwait
01/01/05 Monitoring - AQ attack watch through 03/15/05
US Embassy on 15 Dec.: Credible information that terrorist groups are developing near-term plans for attacks against unspecified targets in Kuwait.
Israel
1/2/04 Campaigning in the West Bank yesterday, former Palestinian Prime Minister and current presidential frontrunner Mahmoud Abbas vowed to protect and shelter wanted terrorists and defended recent appearances with members of the Al Aqsa Martyrs Brigades. ....snip....
http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=42206
Europe - General
12/23/04 Monitoring - AQ attack watch through 01/12/05
Several agencies have intercepted electronic communications pointing to Al Qaida's plans to launch a major attack over the next two weeks, Western intelligence sources said. The sources said Al Qaida was planning to use Islamic subcontractors to carry out major attacks against civilian targets in Europe. Al Qaida has been gathering assets in several European Union countries and Russia over the past two months, the sources said.
Some targets in Western Europe include NATO headquarters in Brussels, a railroad hub packed with holiday travelers and Istanbul, Turkey. Other leading al-Qaida targets include Moscow or St. Petersburg. The sources said al-Qaida cells in Europe are flushed with operatives that fought the U.S.-led coalition in Iraq.
http://www.geostrategy-direct.com/geostrategy-direct/
Africa - General
12/31/04 Militant groups, including al-Qaida, are exploiting lawless areas in the seven-nation Horn of Africa region to hide, recruit and train members and possibly plan attacks. The head of the region's US-led anti-terrorist force, Major General Samuel Helland, said they were using the fact there was a lot of ungoverned space in the area. "Because of (this) . . . it's very easy for a terrorist organisation to establish a presence . . . It's very easy for them to train, equip, organise and use the facilities that are present to gain a foothold," he said.
http://www.heraldsun.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5478,11798861%255E663,00.html
Thailand
01/01/05 Monitoring - AQ attack watch through 01/31/05
Thai intel has reportedly warned about terrorist threats in Bangkok during the latter part of Dec. and early Jan.
12/23/04 Monitoring - AQ attack watch through 12/31/05
Terrorists are plotting attacks next year at tourist resorts across Thailand, according to documents found in the house of a fugitive leader of the country's Islamic insurgency, a senior security official said. The documents show that in 2005, the militants plan to attack "soft targets" such as the tropical beach resorts of Pattaya and Phuket, which draw tourist from around the world.
This area was among the hardest hit as a result of the tsunami of Dec 26, 2004. Based upon the following news item, I suspect that they were planning for an early January 2005 attack scenario. Strongly suspect the tsunami has disrupted those plans. Must continue watch carefully. Godzilla
01/03/05 Thousands of troops and police have been deployed in Thailand's three southernmost provinces in case of violence on the January 04 first anniversary of a Muslim separatist revolt. "We deployed thousands of security officers," General Sirichai Tanyasiri, head of the Southern Border Provinces Peace Building Command, told AFP. …snip…
Security officials have said Islamic militants in the south of the mainly Buddhist nation are planning major attacks in the southern provinces and the capital Bangkok around January 4.
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_asiapacific/view/125454/1/.html
Saudi Arabia
12/28/04 Monitoring - AQ attack watch through 02/28/05
Call for attacks on oil infrastructure in Iraq and Gulf region by Osama bin Laden
Pakistan
12/31/04 The administrator of South Waziristan, Mr Asmatullah Gandapur, was injured in an explosion apparently caused by militants, a government official said on Thursday.
http://www.dawn.com/2004/12/31/top13.htm
United States
01/03/05 The Islamic Army of Iraq, one of the main groups fighting US forces in the war torn country, has threatened to carry out attacks inside the United States in the year 2005, in a statement posted on their website Monday.
http://www.khaleejtimes.com/DisplayArticle.asp?xfile=data/focusoniraq/2005/January/focusoniraq/_January15.xml§ion=focusoniraq
4. Attack method.
11/23/04 No real change in the preferred method of choice of AQ which are bombs - the bigger the better. With the exception of 9/11, car/truck bombs have been widely used. However, aircraft are also still in the mix. There are special concerns regarding the use by terrorists of the following types of vehicles:
1. Uhaul type cargo trucks.
2. Gasoline / Propane supply / tanker trucks.
3. Emergency vehicles (ambulances, police cars, fire trucks)
Current alerts out for at least two stolen fuel/tanker trucks, a stolen crop duster and about a hundred propane tanks. It is uncertain if the thefts are linked to terrorism at this time, however they could be adapted for use in a terrorist attack.
1/2/05 The international pursuit of Osama Bin Laden has not stopped his Al-Qaeda network from seeking to build weapons of mass destruction, senior US officials said last week. Recent intelligence indicates that the group is turning its attention to chemical and biological weapons.
Despite severe technical obstacles to the launch of terrorist biowarfare, Washington believes Bin Laden has become convinced that only a WMD attack would be sufficient punishment for the US-led invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq. The overwhelming bulk of the evidence we have is that their efforts are focused on biological and chemical weapons, said John Bolton, undersecretary of state for arms control. Intelligence services in Egypt and Israel confirmed that Al-Qaeda had stepped up its efforts to acquire toxic materials as a result of the war in Iraq.
Experts believe Al-Qaeda still lacks the laboratory access and scientific skills to produce weapons. But some of the administration ‘s scientific advisers have warned that the necessary technology is rapidly spreading. Some of it is even taught at undergraduate level. Not all scientists believe a group such as Al-Qaeda will ever master biowarfare technologies. The main fear is that a rogue scientist may be prepared to sell his expertise.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2089-1423188,00.html
5. Personnel
01/03/05 Nothing significant to report.
6. Significant meetings canceled:
01/03/04 No new cancellations.
7. Security in specific cities
01/03/04 NYC is at a locally declared ORANGE where it had been since. 9/11/01.
GENERAL: Ongoing work to upgrade security at sea ports and airports.
8. Military operations.
01/03/04 No significant changes except that the USS Lincoln and escort ships are currently in the Indian Ocean (Java Sea) to provide support to humanitarian operations in the region following the Sumatra tsunami.
9. Dept of Homeland Scty. / State Department
12/29/04 Travel Warning
United States Department of State
Bureau of Consular Affairs
Washington, DC 20520
This information is current as of today, Thu Dec 30 11:16:59 2004.
LIBYA
December 29, 2004
This Travel Warning is being issued to update the security information in Libya. Libya remains on the U.S. Government’s State Sponsors of Terrorism List. The United States Department of State warns U.S. citizens traveling to Libya to exercise caution. This Warning supersedes the Travel Warning for Libya issued June 28, 2004.
The U.S. lifted restrictions on the use of U.S. passports for travel to Libya in February 2004. While Libya has taken steps to cooperate in the global war on terrorism, the Libyan Government remains on the U.S. Government €™s State Sponsors of Terrorism List. Although Libya appears to have curtailed its support for international terrorism, it may maintain residual contacts with some of its former terrorist clients.
Recent worldwide terrorist alerts have stated that extremist groups continue to plan terrorist attacks against U.S. interests in the region. Therefore, any American citizen who decides to travel to Libya should maintain a strong security posture by being aware of surroundings, avoiding crowds and demonstrations, keeping a low profile, and varying times and routes for all required travel. In light of these security concerns, U.S. citizens are urged to maintain a high level of vigilance and to take appropriate steps to increase their security awareness.
....snip.......
12/30/04 PUBLIC ANNOUNCEMENT
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF STATE
Office of the Spokesman
This information is current as of today, Thu Dec 30 11:19:11 2004.
December 29, 2004
This Public Announcement is being reissued to remind Americans of the continuing potential for terrorist actions against U.S. citizens in East Africa. This supersedes the Public Announcement of June 29, 2004, and expires on June 28, 2005.
The Department of State believes there remains the threat of future terrorist attacks in East Africa. Travelers to East African destinations should carefully review their plans accordingly.
The potential for future threats against civil aviation continues throughout the East Africa region. Seaports may also be targeted.
Supporters of Al-Qaida and other extremists are active in East Africa. Americans in the region must remain vigilant with regard to their personal security and exercise caution. Terrorist actions may include suicide operations, bombings, or kidnappings. Terrorists do not distinguish between official and civilian targets. Increased security at official U.S. facilities has led terrorists to seek softer targets such as residential areas, clubs, restaurants, American commercial interests, western-oriented shopping centers, places of worship, hotels, schools, outdoor recreation events, resorts, beaches, and planes. Americans in remote areas or border regions where military or police authority is limited or non-existent could also be targets of attacks or kidnappings.
....snip......
10. Suspicious Domestic Incidents Not Currently Linked to Specific Terrorism Attempts
Until some arrests are made, it is difficult to determine if the lasering of aircraft is the work of pranksters or terrorists. The post Christmas clustering of events point to the pranksters. Powerful lasers are available for relatively low costs, so there are many possibilities. If the incidents continue at its current pace now the holidays are over, then there may be more sinister motives at work. At latest count, there have been approximately 8 incidents since Christmas.
Numerous bomb threats / suspicious packages or articles, have been posted on TM over the past year. Many have been lead to conclude that many of these are tests by terrorists to evaluate LEO response measures as well as to drain resources and alertness for the real thing. I am beginning to suspect that threats made against transportation hubs are such a test.
1/2/05 An airline on approach to the Nashville airport has had it's cockpit targeted by a green laser. The plane was about 6 miles out and at 3000 feet when the incident occurred. The plane landed safely and no one was injured.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1312707/posts
1/2/05 The attorney of a Lake Parsippany resident questioned by authorities about his suspected use of a laser light said Saturday her client was in the "wrong place at the wrong time." "At one moment he was in the backyard playing with his daughter," said Longarzo, "and 10 minutes later 12 police cars descended and he was whisked away by authorities and interrogated until 4 a.m.".....snip....
http://www.dailyrecord.com/news/articles/news2-laser.htm
01/01/05 A laser beam was aimed at a police helicopter Friday - one of several incidents involving aircraft across the country in the past week - and federal authorities were questioning someone who had been at a house where they said the light had originated. Officials said no one was hurt when the laser hit the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey police helicopter as it flew over an area where a similar incident occurred Wednesday.
Soon after, Port Authority officials and the FBI went to a Parsippany home where they had tracked the laser beam and were questioning a person there in connection with both incidents, said Steve Coleman, an authority spokesman. No charges had been filed as of late Friday night, Coleman said.
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20050101/D87B2G180.html
12/30/04 An "all clear" has been issued in the security threat involving two HRT buses outside Naval Station Norfolk late this morning. The threat appears to have been a hoax, an HRT spokesman said.
Norfolk police, FBI, NCIS, Navy Special Forces Bomb Squad, and other agencies responded to a vague security threat involving an HRT bus outside Naval Station Norfolk late this morning. A Navy spokesman said Norfolk police had received an anonymous phone call warning them that an HRT bus posed a threat. The caller referring to a bus warned that someone "was going to die.''" ...snip.....
http://www.newsday.com/news/nationworld/nation/dp-news-busthreat,0,4870928.story?coll=ny-leadnationalnews-headlines
12/30/04 Six commercial airliners in the past four days have had their cockpits illuminated by laser beams while attempting to land, a government official told CNN Wednesday. The incidents have happened "all over the place" and in "kind of odd places," the official said without elaborating. None of the flights was affected.
On November 22, the FBI and Department of Homeland Security sent an intelligence bulletin to police agencies to alert them that terrorist groups have shown an interest in using laser beams to try to bring down airliners.
http://www.cnn.com/2004/US/12/29/laser.plane/index.html
01/03/04 LEOs are still looking for stole tankers, propane tanks and a crop duster that could potentially be used for terrorist attacks - Godzilla
Ooooops Terrorism Summary 01/03/05! Duh.
What is ACSA?
Thank you for the summary. :-)