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Scientist: Asteroid May Hit Earth in 2029
Yahoo/AP ^ | 12/23/04 | JOHN ANTCZAK

Posted on 12/23/2004 8:24:16 PM PST by hole_n_one

AP

Scientist: Asteroid May Hit Earth in 2029

Thu Dec 23, 5:40 PM ET

By JOHN ANTCZAK, Associated Press Writer

LOS ANGELES - There's a 1-in-300 chance that a recently discovered asteroid, believed to be about 1,300 feet long, could hit Earth in 2029, a NASA (news - web sites) scientist said Thursday, but he added that the perceived risk probably will be eliminated once astronomers get more detail about its orbit.

 

There have been only a limited number of sightings of Asteroid 2004 MN4, which has been given an initial rating of 2 on the 10-point Torino Impact Hazard Scale used by astronomers to predict asteroid or comet impacts, said Donald Yeomans, manager of the Near Earth Object Program at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena.

No previously observed asteroid has been graded higher than 1.

On Friday, April 13, 2029, "we can't yet rule out an Earth impact," Yeomans said. "But the impact probability, as we call it, is 300-to-1 against an impact."

The asteroid was discovered in June and rediscovered this month.

"This is not a problem for anyone and it shouldn't be a concern to anyone, but whenever we post one of these things and ... somebody gets ahold of it, it just gets crazy," he said.

"In the unlikely event that it did hit, it would be quite serious. We're talking either a tsunami if it hit in the ocean, which would be likely, or significant ground damage," Yeomans said.

Its estimated size has been inferred from its brightness, which assumes that its reflectivity is similar to other asteroids that have been observed. At about 1,320 feet in length, it would have about 1,600 megatons of energy, Yeomans said.

Asteroid 2004 MN4 takes less than a year to go all the way around the sun and on each orbit it passes by Earth's orbit twice, Yeomans said. It is also nearly on the same plane as Earth's orbit.

The asteroid will be visible for the next several months and the NEO program has alerted its network of ground-based observers to include 2004 MN4 in their searches.

Yeomans said there have now been about 40 observations, first from the observatory at Kitt Peak, near Tucson, Ariz., and this month from Australia and New Zealand.

___

On the Net:

Near-Earth Object Program: http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov




TOPICS: Miscellaneous; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: 2029; apophis; artbell; asteroid; asteroids; callingartbell; catastrophism; endoftheworld; fridaythe13th; impact; levy; shoemaker; velikovsky
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To: AnnaZ

Will You E-Mail Me a Double,Double, I Miss Home!.........:*(


321 posted on 05/20/2006 8:10:18 PM PDT by cmsgop ( Please ! For The Love of God Verizon !!! NO MORE MICHAEL McDONALD !!!)
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To: cmsgop
I moved to Texas!! But found something even better... P.Terry's double-double, made with Black Angus beef, and jalapeños on the side!

*sigh*

322 posted on 05/20/2006 8:27:17 PM PDT by AnnaZ (Victory at all costs-in spite of all terror-however long and hard the road may be-for survival)
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lowered odds to 1 in 38,000

http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ip?2.6e-05


323 posted on 07/17/2006 4:56:24 AM PDT by SunkenCiv (updated my FR profile on Wednesday, June 21, 2006. https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/)
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Odds are now calculated at 1:45,000.


324 posted on 10/20/2006 9:37:46 AM PDT by SunkenCiv (Dhimmicrati delenda est! https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/)
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This is a very old topic. Just posting an update.

Apophis is still 1:45,000, mentioned here with many others.
 
Catastrophism
· join · view topics · view or post blog · bookmark · post new topic ·

325 posted on 04/29/2007 9:11:15 AM PDT by SunkenCiv (I last updated my profile on Saturday, April 28, 2007. https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/)
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Asteroid to Pass Near Earth Friday Night (’space rock’ named 2006 VV2)
Space.com on Yahoo | 3/30/07
Posted on 03/31/2007 12:23:41 AM EDT by NormsRevenge
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1809670/posts


326 posted on 05/26/2007 7:25:30 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (Time heals all wounds, particularly when they're not yours. Profile updated May 26, 2007.)
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To: RayChuang88
Sounds like a mining career for the people who do those jobs that Americans just don’t want to do. Maybe there is something to this immigration bill after all.
327 posted on 05/26/2007 7:44:35 PM PDT by DanielLongo (Don't tread on me)
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Asteroid composition is determined
United Press International
U.S. scientists for the first time have determined the composition of a near-Earth asteroid... called Apophis, which has a very slight possibility of someday hitting our planet. They said knowing what an asteroid is made of could be one important factor in deciding what to do about such an impending collision... On April 13, 2029, Apophis will come relatively close to Earth, missing the planet by about 22,000 miles. But when it comes by again in 2036, there is a very small possibility -- about one chance in 45,000 -- that it could be on a collision course. Apophis, containing the minerals pyroxene and olivine, is about 270 meters wide, but could devastate an area as large as France, or if it struck at sea, generate tsunamis.

328 posted on 10/19/2007 7:15:52 AM PDT by SunkenCiv (Profile updated Tuesday, October 16, 2007. https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/)
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To: 75thOVI; aimhigh; Alice in Wonderland; AndrewC; aragorn; aristotleman; Avoiding_Sulla; BBell; ...

Just bumping an old topic. 2009 DD45 just missed — it is approximately the size of the object which smashed into Siberia in 1908. (whew)

http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/ca/

http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=2009%20DD45;orb=1

http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/


329 posted on 03/03/2009 5:49:16 PM PST by SunkenCiv (https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/____________________ Profile updated Monday, January 12, 2009)
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Catastrophism
· join · view topics · view or post blog · bookmark · post new topic ·

330 posted on 03/03/2009 5:50:08 PM PST by SunkenCiv (https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/____________________ Profile updated Monday, January 12, 2009)
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To: SunkenCiv

How close did it come?


331 posted on 03/03/2009 5:54:59 PM PST by txhurl (ralph...)
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Surprise Asteroid Makes Near-Miss of Earth (Missed by 40,000 miles)
Fox News | 3-2-09
Posted on 03/02/2009 10:10:14 AM PST by puffer
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2197381/posts


332 posted on 03/03/2009 5:57:39 PM PST by SunkenCiv (https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/____________________ Profile updated Monday, January 12, 2009)
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To: hole_n_one

...wow, slow news day...

Besides will any of us be alive to see it then?


333 posted on 03/03/2009 5:59:43 PM PST by Secret Agent Man (I'd like to tell you, but then I'd have to kill you.)
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To: txhurl

a bit over 40K miles, or roughly twice the distance of geostationary satellites.


334 posted on 03/03/2009 6:07:14 PM PST by SunkenCiv (https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/____________________ Profile updated Monday, January 12, 2009)
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To: Secret Agent Man; SunkenCiv
Besides will any of us be alive to see it then?

Just keep The O in office and ever thing will be just fine. His "O" lyness is our only hope.

335 posted on 03/03/2009 6:11:17 PM PST by bigheadfred (Negromancer !!! RUN for your lives !!!)
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To: SunkenCiv

Damn.....


336 posted on 03/03/2009 6:13:20 PM PST by txhurl (ralph...)
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To: txhurl

My favorite part is how the estimated number of unknown Earth-crossers was arbitrarily reduced by a bunch — and then up pops another one. And another one. And another one. :’)


337 posted on 03/03/2009 6:51:05 PM PST by SunkenCiv (https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/____________________ Profile updated Monday, January 12, 2009)
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