Posted on 12/23/2004 8:24:16 PM PST by hole_n_one
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Thu Dec 23, 5:40 PM ET
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By JOHN ANTCZAK, Associated Press Writer
LOS ANGELES - There's a 1-in-300 chance that a recently discovered asteroid, believed to be about 1,300 feet long, could hit Earth in 2029, a NASA (news - web sites) scientist said Thursday, but he added that the perceived risk probably will be eliminated once astronomers get more detail about its orbit.
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There have been only a limited number of sightings of Asteroid 2004 MN4, which has been given an initial rating of 2 on the 10-point Torino Impact Hazard Scale used by astronomers to predict asteroid or comet impacts, said Donald Yeomans, manager of the Near Earth Object Program at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena.
No previously observed asteroid has been graded higher than 1.
On Friday, April 13, 2029, "we can't yet rule out an Earth impact," Yeomans said. "But the impact probability, as we call it, is 300-to-1 against an impact."
The asteroid was discovered in June and rediscovered this month.
"This is not a problem for anyone and it shouldn't be a concern to anyone, but whenever we post one of these things and ... somebody gets ahold of it, it just gets crazy," he said.
"In the unlikely event that it did hit, it would be quite serious. We're talking either a tsunami if it hit in the ocean, which would be likely, or significant ground damage," Yeomans said.
Its estimated size has been inferred from its brightness, which assumes that its reflectivity is similar to other asteroids that have been observed. At about 1,320 feet in length, it would have about 1,600 megatons of energy, Yeomans said.
Asteroid 2004 MN4 takes less than a year to go all the way around the sun and on each orbit it passes by Earth's orbit twice, Yeomans said. It is also nearly on the same plane as Earth's orbit.
The asteroid will be visible for the next several months and the NEO program has alerted its network of ground-based observers to include 2004 MN4 in their searches.
Yeomans said there have now been about 40 observations, first from the observatory at Kitt Peak, near Tucson, Ariz., and this month from Australia and New Zealand.
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On the Net:
Near-Earth Object Program: http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov
2000 SG344 stillat 1:556 (over 68 encounters during a 33 year period)
(SLAP!! SLAP!!)
Steel yourself man!
/jasper
1 in 7,140 chance
You're an alarmist, you know.
I prefer to call it, "forward looking". ;')
bttt
Comet put on list of potential Earth impactors
New Scientist | 1 June 2005 | David L Chandler
Posted on 06/02/2005 9:04:31 AM PDT by SunkenCiv
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/chat/1415144/posts
What does that mean? Was it lost or just misplaced? Does whoever finds it again get to name it after himself?
Well, that would be one way to take care of our problems with Social Security and Medicare.
"2012 seems to be the magic number... Jack Van Impe is talking about that year too because of the St Malachy prophecy."
I'll call you January 2, 2013 (after the bowl games), and we'll talk then.
Thanks for writing me back.
Jack Van Impe moved out the date. He sure is fun to watch though.
This idea makes too much sense! If we did it, the Dems would just tax it out of existence...
We goke alike, eh?
The risk of impact by 2004 MN4 has fallen again, to 1 in 9,090.
Asteroid MN4 and How to Protect the Earth
Article Posted: April 25, 2005
By: David Morrison
Possible future impacts by NEA 2004MN4 continue to stimulate thinking about protecting the planet, as in these comments by Guy Gugliotta and Rusty Schweickart.
SCIENCE'S DOOMSDAY TEAM VS. THE ASTEROIDS
By Guy Gugliotta
Washington Post
April 9, 2005
WHEN TO ACT ON IMPACT PREDICTIONS
by Rusty Schweickart
http://128.102.32.13/impact/news_detail.cfm?ID=157
I keep hoping that there will be some action on actually doing something about moving asteroids rather than just cataloging bodies. The techniques involved in moving asteroids would be in the same line of application as asteroid mining, thus advancing the state of the art, and cataloging should also include some analysis of the mineral nature of each asteroid. Some asteroids would be much more valuable than most of them depending on mineral make-up.
...oh wait... we lived through Y2K...
Although, even a flying gravel pit would be handy if building a large base someplace in open space.
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