Posted on 12/23/2004 8:24:16 PM PST by hole_n_one
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Thu Dec 23, 5:40 PM ET
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By JOHN ANTCZAK, Associated Press Writer
LOS ANGELES - There's a 1-in-300 chance that a recently discovered asteroid, believed to be about 1,300 feet long, could hit Earth in 2029, a NASA (news - web sites) scientist said Thursday, but he added that the perceived risk probably will be eliminated once astronomers get more detail about its orbit.
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There have been only a limited number of sightings of Asteroid 2004 MN4, which has been given an initial rating of 2 on the 10-point Torino Impact Hazard Scale used by astronomers to predict asteroid or comet impacts, said Donald Yeomans, manager of the Near Earth Object Program at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena.
No previously observed asteroid has been graded higher than 1.
On Friday, April 13, 2029, "we can't yet rule out an Earth impact," Yeomans said. "But the impact probability, as we call it, is 300-to-1 against an impact."
The asteroid was discovered in June and rediscovered this month.
"This is not a problem for anyone and it shouldn't be a concern to anyone, but whenever we post one of these things and ... somebody gets ahold of it, it just gets crazy," he said.
"In the unlikely event that it did hit, it would be quite serious. We're talking either a tsunami if it hit in the ocean, which would be likely, or significant ground damage," Yeomans said.
Its estimated size has been inferred from its brightness, which assumes that its reflectivity is similar to other asteroids that have been observed. At about 1,320 feet in length, it would have about 1,600 megatons of energy, Yeomans said.
Asteroid 2004 MN4 takes less than a year to go all the way around the sun and on each orbit it passes by Earth's orbit twice, Yeomans said. It is also nearly on the same plane as Earth's orbit.
The asteroid will be visible for the next several months and the NEO program has alerted its network of ground-based observers to include 2004 MN4 in their searches.
Yeomans said there have now been about 40 observations, first from the observatory at Kitt Peak, near Tucson, Ariz., and this month from Australia and New Zealand.
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On the Net:
Near-Earth Object Program: http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov
During the Black Death there were plenty of festivities.
Well, we can all blow off the tax filings that year. Finally!
Bring it on.
From http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news149.html:
"The asteroid's motion subsequent to the 2029 Earth close approach is very sensitive to the circumstances of the close approach itself and a number of future Earth close approaches will be monitored as additional observations are received"
So after 2029, all bets are off, well need to recalculate the trajectory.
Oh well I won't be around
:') I was just updating from the NEO program page (NASA/JPL). The odds in 2036 are shown as 1:13,000, but from what I read on the page you linked, the claim is that there won't be any 21st c encounters in which the Earth will be at risk. Guess I'd better read some more...
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/2004mn4.html
I'll probably win the lottery on April 12, 2029.
Eight total rendezvous, and three consecutive years with Torino 1. The more the refinement, the less it seems to go away. No impact, probably, but could be a good show.
no change:
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/2004mn4.html
this looks kinda fun:
Observation prediction for 6344P-L
http://131.114.72.13/cgi-bin/neodys/neoibo?obspred:0;main;6344P-L;81679
6344P-L is one of a number of lost objects shown on this page:
http://131.114.72.13/cgi-bin/neodys/neoibo?riskpage:0;main
Just a bit of curiousity, perhaps you can help me.
Mass of the 2004MN4 is given as 4.6e+10 kg
The online converter I used gave that as 39811 kilograms
That converted to 87,768.2311984 pounds, or almost 44 tons.
That seems like an awfully small number for an object with a diamter of .320 km (about a fifth of a mile), unless it's frozen gas.
Oh, wait, never mind... I found this page works better:
http://www.onlineconversion.com/weight_all.htm
46000000000 kilogram = 101,412,640,605.044 pounds
46000000000 kilogram = 50,706,320.3025218 tons [short]
Fifty million tons. Much better.
Glad to help.
back up to 1 in 6,250 chance. Three close encounters (which I believe is down from four, but I didn't check), nine total encounters, dates follow.
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/2004mn4.html
2035-04-14
2036-04-13
2037-04-13
Can't they send a probe or something to find out what the rock is composed of, as well as analysis done on earth, then during each of it 2x a year passes near earth send up rockets with lots of chemicals that, when combined on the asteroid surface, will dissolve it?
I figured it would be hard to do that for something that was hundreds of miles, but something like this is only 1300 feet wide. If we can dissolve about 27 feet of width (of course there is height and depth to worry about too, but just more chemicals) on every near pass between now and then, it would be about the size of a baseball in 24 years.
That was my own invented way of getting rid of a 'too close to call' asteroid - reduce it in size significantly before an expected hit via chemistry. I also always figured I must be missing something since it's sounds too easy.
And I don't even play a scientist on tv!
Clinton blames the NRA.
"If we can dissolve about 27 feet of width (of course there is height and depth to worry about too, but just more chemicals) on every near pass between now and then, it would be about the size of a baseball in 24 years."
Ooooor, instead of whittling it down, we could build a really large bat, and...
Good, I'm travelling to the outer edges of space that month.../s
no change. d*** these boring space objects.
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/2004mn4.html
Yeah? And chicken little thought that acorn meant the sky was falling...
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