Scientist: Asteroid May Hit Earth in 2029

Yahoo/AP ^ | 12/23/04 | JOHN ANTCZAK

[hole_n_one]

Scientist: Asteroid May Hit Earth in 2029

Thu Dec 23, 5:40 PM ET

By JOHN ANTCZAK, Associated Press Writer

LOS ANGELES - There's a 1-in-300 chance that a recently discovered asteroid, believed to be about 1,300 feet long, could hit Earth in 2029, a NASA (news - web sites) scientist said Thursday, but he added that the perceived risk probably will be eliminated once astronomers get more detail about its orbit.

There have been only a limited number of sightings of Asteroid 2004 MN4, which has been given an initial rating of 2 on the 10-point Torino Impact Hazard Scale used by astronomers to predict asteroid or comet impacts, said Donald Yeomans, manager of the Near Earth Object Program at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena.

No previously observed asteroid has been graded higher than 1.

On Friday, April 13, 2029, "we can't yet rule out an Earth impact," Yeomans said. "But the impact probability, as we call it, is 300-to-1 against an impact."

The asteroid was discovered in June and rediscovered this month.

"This is not a problem for anyone and it shouldn't be a concern to anyone, but whenever we post one of these things and ... somebody gets ahold of it, it just gets crazy," he said.

"In the unlikely event that it did hit, it would be quite serious. We're talking either a tsunami if it hit in the ocean, which would be likely, or significant ground damage," Yeomans said.

Its estimated size has been inferred from its brightness, which assumes that its reflectivity is similar to other asteroids that have been observed. At about 1,320 feet in length, it would have about 1,600 megatons of energy, Yeomans said.

Asteroid 2004 MN4 takes less than a year to go all the way around the sun and on each orbit it passes by Earth's orbit twice, Yeomans said. It is also nearly on the same plane as Earth's orbit.

The asteroid will be visible for the next several months and the NEO program has alerted its network of ground-based observers to include 2004 MN4 in their searches.

Yeomans said there have now been about 40 observations, first from the observatory at Kitt Peak, near Tucson, Ariz., and this month from Australia and New Zealand.

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On the Net:

Near-Earth Object Program: http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov

[SunkenCiv]

newest revisions:

http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/2004mn4.html

1 in 29,000 chance April 13, 2053
1 in 83,000 chance April 13, 2044

[SunkenCiv]

Odds of impact up again, to 1:15000...

[SunkenCiv]

Odds up again:

1 in 14,000 chance (overall)

28 encounters, which is an increase.

Encounters beginning in 2044, ending 2104

1 in 29,000 chance on April 13 2053.

[SunkenCiv]

back to 1 in 15,000 chance overall

still two encounters at Torino 1

1 in 28,000 chance on Apr 13 2053

1 in 91,000 chance on Apr 13 2044

[reg45]

And you thought you had seen enough of Lurch this year...

Actually, I saw enough of that loser last year.

[SunkenCiv]

These results were computed on Jan 28, 2005

2004 VD17

1 in 7,690 chance overall

May 4 2091, 1 in 12,000 chance

These results were computed on May 29, 2002

1997 XR2

1 in 10,000 chance overall

Jun 6 2101, 1 in 19,000 chance

Jun 6 2101, 1 in 22,000 chance

[SunkenCiv]

again, changes, still 1:14000 overall, but 1:28000 on April 13 2053, and 25 total encounters between 2044 and 2103.

[Pylon]

I'll bet the under.

[Rca2000]

I'm not sure if anyone has told you this yet or not, but that will NOT work, because ICBM's CANNOT escape the earth's orbital boundaries-- they are not meant to do so, after all. To use one, you would need to add a"superbooster", to get to the upper atmosphere, and THEN, maybe, you could use the original stages of the missile, to get out of the earth's orbital neighborhood.

Remember:: you must get to over 22,500 mph, to escape, the earth, and ,no matter what ,you would NOT want to nuke an asteroid inside of the earth's orbit. If you did, you would have Radioactive debris raining down , ALL OVER the planet.

[SunkenCiv]

[Nowhere Man]

I'm not sure if anyone has told you this yet or not, but that will NOT work, because ICBM's CANNOT escape the earth's orbital boundaries-- they are not meant to do so, after all. To use one, you would need to add a"superbooster", to get to the upper atmosphere, and THEN, maybe, you could use the original stages of the missile, to get out of the earth's orbital neighborhood.

Remember:: you must get to over 22,500 mph, to escape, the earth, and ,no matter what ,you would NOT want to nuke an asteroid inside of the earth's orbit. If you did, you would have Radioactive debris raining down , ALL OVER the planet.

I don't think the radioactive debris would be a huge worry although the rocks from the explosion could be as well as the EMP. I know the Titan II was able to get the Gemini and Agena docking station into Earth orbit. I guess if you need a Titan II to escape the bounds of Earth, you would have to calculate the payload. I do believe there is a Titan III which was the Titan II that did use side boosters

[SunkenCiv]

Wow! In just a few days, a big change:

Overall odds, 1 in 6,250 chance

1 in 15,000 chance on April 13 2036

Number of encounters from 2034 to 2055, reduced to eight

[paulat]

Damn!! I had a hair appointment then!!!

[SunkenCiv]

I'm pretty sure these numbers are going to go up even more. The refinement of the orbit info via continued observation should have excluded impact by now, and it hasn't.

[Lonesome in Massachussets]

Radar Observations Refine the Future Motion of Asteroid 2004 MN4

Updated Set of Possible Positions of 2004 MN4 on April 13, 2029

Closeup View

[missyme]

Well there we don't have to worry about Social Security for Baby Boomers now...

[PistolPaknMama]

Have the French surrendered yet?

ROFL!!

[SunkenCiv]

Wow, should be a nice show, eh? :')

[RetroWarrior]

That would be one hell of a party!

[SunkenCiv]

Odds the same, but the number of encounters up to nine.