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To: <1/1,000,000th%

something i already wrote somewhere else:

Lets say the dollar keeps falling. what happens? there are a few possibilities:
a) you don't have (enough of) the stuff you import, example oil and probably other raw-materials. the price for those goods will rise and there isnt much you can do about it. US-companies that use those raw-materials to produce their goods will also have to rise their prices. Inflation.
b) you could produce a certain good on your own, but stoped it, because the costs were too high. On the short term, prices for those goods will also rise, because you can't restart production from one day to the other. After a while production in the us would start again, but the costs for it would be still higher than before the fall of the dollar (or there would have been no sense in outsorcing to another country in the first place). also 'some' inflation.

so far we got higher prices. The wages within the US can't rise, because that would destroy the competitive advantage you get out of the fallen dollar. (It doesn't make any difference to me as a european if an american product costs 100€ because its production costs 100$ and the exchange rate is 1:1 or if it costs 100€ because its production costs 130$ and the exchangerate is 1:1.3; works within the US the same way)

so we got higher prices and constant wages, that means a lower standard of living for the people in the US. how much good it will do you for the exports to other countries, i dont know, but i expect the rest of the world to fall into a recession if the us-market is gone. if i loose my job, i wont buy much, no matter how cheap american products are.


11 posted on 12/10/2004 8:53:14 AM PST by wu_trax
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To: wu_trax; Brit_Guy

You are correct.

I blame it on the lack of coffee this morning.


33 posted on 12/10/2004 2:37:41 PM PST by <1/1,000,000th%
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