Posted on 12/06/2004 5:17:42 AM PST by SJackson
Egypt's surprise release of Azzam Azzam Sunday is a clear sign that Cairo is very serious about warming up ties with Israel.
What is less clear is why.
Azzam had been incarcerated in Egyptian jails since 1996, and his sudden release indicates that had Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak had the will, he could have released Azzam much earlier.
The reasons proffered by diplomatic officials, former ambassadors to Egypt and academics for the sudden change range from the prosaic to the poetic.
Those in the prosaic school argue, as did a number of diplomatic officials in Jerusalem on Sunday, that Azzam was simply a bone in Mubarak's throat that he needed to extricate.
According to this school of thought, Mubarak is very keen on reaping certain benefits from Israel, such as the establishment of three way Egyptian-Israel-US Qualifying Industrial Zones (QIZ) that would give goods made in Egypt with some minimal contribution from Israel preferred trade status in the US.
A similar scheme has been working with Jordan for some five years, and has led to a significant increase in Jordanian exports to the US.
Egypt wants in on what is obviously a very sweet deal, but Israel – because of Azzam – has been dragging its feet. Now that Azzam has been released, Israel will move faster, indeed Israel will sprint, and the program is now set to be launched in Egypt with an official launching on December 14.
According to the prosaic school of thought, Mubarak woke up on November 3, saw the election results in the US that brought George W. Bush back into office for another four years, and realized that it was worthwhile to warm up ties with Israel in order to gain favor in Washington.
He knew, however, that this would be difficult to do while Azzam was incarcerated. Sharon, unlike his predecessors Ehud Barak, Binyamin Netanyahu and Shimon Peres, didn't show any great interest in flying to see Mubarak, something that in the past bestowed a great deal of diplomatic prestige on the Egyptian leader. One reason for Sharon's reluctance: the incarceration of Azzam.
The release of Azzam is expected to be followed by Egypt's return of its ambassador to Tel Aviv, pulled in November 2000 to protest Israel's response to the Palestinian violence. Diplomatic officials said this is only likely after the Palestinian elections on January 9. And then, when there is something truly dramatic to announce in Egyptian-Israeli ties, such as perhaps an Israeli decision to move out of the Philadelphia corridor on the Gaza-Egyptian border, a Sharon-Mubarak meeting is likely.
Zvi Mazel, who became Israel's ambassador to Egypt a month after Azzam was incarcerated in 1996 and served there until 2001, said the Egyptians realize that if they want a bigger part in the diplomatic process, they need to cooperate with Israel. "We are 50 percent of the equation," Mazel said, adding that the Azzam issue was forcing Sharon to keep the Egyptians at arm's length.
Yoram Meital, the head of the Chaim Herzog Center for Middle East Studies and Diplomacy at Ben-Gurion University and author of "Egypt's Struggle for Peace, 1967-1977," takes the more "poetic" view.
Meital says the release of Azzam is a highly significant change in Egyptian policy, and needs to be seen within the context of Yasser Arafat's death, attempts to help Mahmoud Abbas establish control, Sharon's disengagement plan, and clear signals from the US administration - from Bush downward - that the US will be very engaged in the diplomatic process.
Mubarak sees this as a window of opportunity, Meital says, and believes that in order for Sharon to move beyond mere disengagement from Gaza, Egypt needs to be highly engaged in the process. But in order to be fully engaged it needs Israel's cooperation, something that was difficult to attain with Azzam in prison.
Mubarak, says Meital, is concerned lest the diplomatic process end with the disengagement plan, and all Egypt gets out of the bargain is the unhappy role of securing the Egyptian-Gaza border.
Mubarak's designs, he says, "are much more ambitious." He wants the diplomatic process to move forward from Gaza, he wants to see something much more wide reaching, he wants to see the road map implemented.
Mubarak's gesture, Meital says, was designed to impress both the Israeli government and Israeli public opinion. The Egyptian leader who on Thursday said that Sharon is the Palestinians "best chance for peace," really means it, Meital says.
Mubarak's fear is that if the government crumbles, disengagement will be put on hold and the diplomatic process will go nowhere. It is for this reason that he decided to release Azzam now.
"This creates new momentum," Meital says. And Mubarak wants to ensure that the Israeli public feels it.
Beware those bearing gifts.
It costs nothing for Egypt to float this kind of "sincere" BS.
What better insurance policy than this to keep finding that $ billion check in the mailbox from the US.
A number of factors could contribute. But perhaps the main one is the economic factor, the reason why Saadat made peace with Israel in the first place. Egypt is poverty stricken. The USA deals out the money, and this is an easy goodwill gesture to the USA though what many countries in the Middle East see as its proxy, Israel.
The second reason is just a facilitator, that the nuisance, Arafat, is now safely out of the way for all time and Israeli Arab relationships are in a quiet place at the moment
I wholeheartedly agree, CriticalJ.
This is part of a long-term effort by Egypt to lull Israel to sleep again, as it did in 1972-1973, prior to the YK / October 6th war. In addition to "prisoner exchanges" and other steps toward improving relations with Israel (without, however, major increases in trade; one doesn't go to war with trading partners), Egypt will use various pretexts -- such as terror bombings and tunnels, which have their origin on Egyptian soil and in Saudi money -- to move more and more troops and equipment toward the border with Israel. There will be additional "accidental" incursions into Israeli territory. Syria and Egypt will collude (already are) and Syria has already shifted the bulk of its force in Lebanon nearer the border.
another version same story:
Israel, Egypt Swap Prisoners in Sign of Warmer Ties
Reuters ^ | 12-5-04 | Dan Williams
Posted on 12/05/2004 6:56:18 AM PST by Pharmboy
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1294812/posts
related:
Israel, Egypt reach border security deal
Jerusalem Post ^ | 12-01-4 | HERB KEINON
Posted on 12/01/2004 5:37:23 AM PST by SJackson
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1291861/posts
Egyptian Terror Cell Stopped [also pics of two of its members]
Israel National News ^ | 18:22 Sep 12, '04 / 26 Elul 5764
Posted on 09/12/2004 12:59:52 PM PDT by yonif
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1214028/posts
IDF tank said to have mistakenly killed 3 Egyptian soldiers
Haaretz ^ | November 18, 2004
Posted on 11/17/2004 10:00:44 PM PST by yonif
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1282685/posts
Israeli tank mistakenly kills 3 Egyptian soldiers at border
China View ^ | 2004-11-18 17:43:08 | China View
Posted on 11/18/2004 3:02:55 AM PST by newzjunkey
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1282782/posts
Egypt demands 'full and immediate' probe into killings
Jerusalem Post ^ | 11/18/4 | MARGOT DUDKEVITCH AND HERB KEINON
Posted on 11/18/2004 10:25:00 AM PST by SmithL
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1283095/posts
[I'm too lazy to look for the topic(s) regarding those Sinai hotel bombings]
Iraq's weapons of mass destruction in Lebanon?
WorldNetDaily/Geostrategy Direct ^ | Aug. 15, 2003 | WND
Posted on 08/15/2003 9:21:20 PM PDT by FairOpinion
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/965072/posts
Report: U.S suspects Iraqi WMD in Lebanon's Bekaa Valley
Drudge via World Tribune ^ | Monday, August 25, 2003
Posted on 08/25/2003 12:12:28 PM PDT by RoughDobermann
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/970152/posts
Thanks for the links.
Over a year ago, MK Elon presented Egypt with a plan. In the plan, Egypt would lease parts of the Sinai to a Palestinian state and connect it to Gaza. Israel would connect the WB to Gaza with direct rail and road. This would enable products from the ME (i.e. Yemen, Saudi, Jordan, Iraq etc.) to be transported easily to Europe (and vice versa), bypassing the Suez which is overstrained anyway, and ending the practice of shipping around the horn of Africa which is longer and costlier.
I think maybe Mubarak is realizing how much his country has missed over the years economically by making things so cold. Like King Hussein of Jordan, perhaps he wants to install a new attitude before he dies and hands power to his son. It's a way of protecting his son - if Mubarak makes the peace warmer his son won't take any blame for it. Plus, it's good for Egypt and the whole ME - and will make Egypt's case as the defacto head of the Arab League again.
"maybe Mubarak is realizing how much his country has missed over the years economically by making things so cold. Like King Hussein of Jordan, perhaps he wants to install a new attitude before he dies and hands power to his son. It's a way of protecting his son - if Mubarak makes the peace warmer his son won't take any blame for it."
And if he tries it, I wonder if the new regime in Egypt will bury them side by side?
Similar to a plan to create a palestinian state from Gaza and a portion of the Sinai proposed by one of Israel's foreign ministers, after the 73 war I think. Made a lot of sense, and, of course went nowhere.
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