India: U.S. Embassy Reaction to Attack Threat

STRATFOR ^ | November 23, 2004 1723 GMT

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Summary

The U.S. Embassy in India issued a statement saying the U.S. Consulate General in Mumbai would be closed Nov. 23 after threats of possible attacks. The warning lacked specifics, and considering that most militant activity in India has been away from centers of U.S. interests, the closure and warning are likely a precautionary, proactive measure.

Analysis

The U.S. Consulate General in the western Indian city of Mumbai was closed after receiving threats of possible attacks, the U.S. Embassy announced Nov. 23. No specifics were provided in the statement, which said the move was taken after the receipt of information that U.S. interests in the Indian capital of New Delhi and Mumbai could be the target of an attack.

The warning that accompanied the closure was not very specific and appeared to be more boilerplate than anything actionable. Despite what appears to be the lack of solid threat information, the consulate was closed and U.S. citizens warned. This is likely a "better safe than sorry" reaction and a desire to be proactive in alerting U.S. interests in the country, of which there are many. It is worth noting that Pakistani Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz is visiting New Delhi on Nov. 23 -- Aziz himself escaped assassination in July 2004 when a suicide bomber driving an explosive-filled vehicle detonated it north of Islamabad.

Over the past year there have been a handful of warnings, threats and closures in and around the Indian cities where U.S. interests primarily lie:

• Nov. 23 -- The U.S. consulate in the Western city of Mumbai is closed because of security concerns. The move was predicated on information received by the FBI. The U.S. Embassy in New Delhi remained open.
  
• Aug. 12 -- The U.S. Embassy in India publishes a message ahead of India's independence day, warning U.S. citizens to be wary of possible attacks.
  
• Aug. 5 -- The U.S. Embassy in New Delhi is closed after information is received about a potential militant threat. The threat reportedly was predicated on intelligence received in either Afghanistan or Pakistan that al Qaeda was planning an attack. Consulates in other cities remained open.
  
• June 29 -- Indian police say a plot to detonate a suicide bomb at Mumbai's stock exchange is foiled. The plot is uncovered when a series of arrests nets more than 20 members of the Lashkar-e-Toiba militant group. The group also had plans to carry out smaller attacks in Srinagar, Pune and New Delhi.
  
• Feb. 24 -- One boy is injured in what is described as a "bomb-like" explosion near a suburban Mumbai rail station. An act of terrorism is suspected but never proven.
  
• June 25 -- India's Bureau of Civil Aviation Security issues a warning that Indian airliners might be hijacked. The alert specifically focuses on Indian air traffic into and out of Dubai.
  
• Jan. 14 -- The U.S. Embassy issues a Warden Message ahead of the World Social Forum to be held in a suburb of Mumbai.
  
  Despite India's reputation for separatist violence and even terrorism, such activity is largely restricted to areas with little to no U.S. business interests -- when one considers that the key cities for foreign investment are Mumbai, Hyderabad, Bangalore, New Delhi and Chandigarh. Militant-type attacks and activity are common in the Northern Kashmir areas, the eastern Assam states and western areas near Goa.
  
  The most militant activity in Western investment areas is near Hyderabad in the Andhra Pradesh state, where the Maoist Peoples' War Group (PWG) operates; the group has not carried out an attack in Hyderabad since September 2001. The PWG did unsuccessfully attempt to assassinate Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister N. Chandrababu Naidu in Tirupati with an improvised explosive device in September 2003.
  
  This is not to say the U.S- issued Warden Message and the closure of the consulate should not be taken seriously; these decisions are never made lightly. However, looking at the vagueness of the warning and the overall climate of India -- the United States has not issued a travel warning for India in two years, and that was issued over tensions between India and Pakistan rather than worries about terrorism -- it seems that terrorism remains a much less likely security threat for U.S. businesses in India than the much more real problem of common criminal activity. Crime remains rife throughout the country and in areas where U.S. businesses operate, unlike militant groups, who have been relatively isolated in recent years.

[nw_arizona_granny]

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