What about nanotech or fusion, if they're workable as conceptualized? Those are really the only imminent technologies that seem like they would pose an actual military threat. A three year lead on HDTV and touch tone aren't exactly dire threats..
I don't see any sign of China likely to surpass America in the tech fields that actually matter. Space tech is another, and China isn't even close. Are there any I'm missing?
Most of these things are little more than a function of economic investment, anyhow, and for all our problems we still have a far more powerful economy than does China.
I also tend to agree with the person who thinks China is more likely to collapse into civil war (or an economic bust) long before it can become a global superpower.
Chinese are good in copying things. They are quite bad in inventing new things. Think of what they have used the gunpowder for. Fireworks.
The very idea of their society was built on continuity. That meant little change. Therefore it will have to take quite a lot of time to shift the paradigm of chinese society.