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To: Crusher138
Looking at your attack concept from the PRC's POV, I would suggest that, although the concept is interesting, it relies far too much on wishful thinking and a series of high-risk operations going right in all important aspects.

Any coordinated attack requires some communication between those ordering the attack and those executing . The larger the attack and the larger the target set, the more communications required--one formula used by the US military for planning such attacks indicates that attacking a target set of N nodes (where N is greater than 1), using point-effect weapons (i.e., no nukes) would require N(N-1) coordination messages between the attacker's national command authority and the forces that would execute the attack. For even a modest-sized target like Taiwan, the number of target nodes is several hundred, which generates a requirement for many tens of thousands of messages. Facilitating this level of communication while preserving the covertness of the attack force is a nontrivial challenge.

343 posted on 12/22/2004 11:45:26 AM PST by Poohbah (God must love fools. He makes so many of them...)
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To: Poohbah
And yet a bunch of underfunded, but highly motivated, Islamofacists wrecked billions of dollars of financial damage and changed our way of thinking with a barely tenable plan.

It would seem, from our experience, that simply telling those involved the date and time, and giving them the means of achieving their objective, is a pretty effective plan.

Ya' see, we tend to over-think this stuff. Over-thinking is good for many things, but many an army has been laid low by inferior, but motivated forces using unconventional tactics. In this day and age maybe we don't have to defeat the enemy, just mess with them enough to lower their morale, or create an insurgency. You might not be able to blow up all of their bridges, but plan on doing so. If half of your operatives get caught, you still have seriously crippled your opponent. You try to take down all major communications towers, but even if you are only partly successful, they are still hindered. Heck, they might not even realize it is an attack...

The PRC has many things going for them. There is a fair percentage of the people in Taiwan who are sympathetic to the PRC. There is no physical difference between the Mainland Chinese and the Taiwanese Chinese. There is a flow of traffic on and off the island that is not that closely watched. There are large amounts of cargo being brought in and and shipped out constantly. All of these situations are ripe for the PRC to use for nefarious purposes.

I still say that I would, at the least, use unconventional methods to soften up, or even out right defeat, Taiwan before trying the strictly military option. The US, under the current administration, is almost certain to get involved militarily. You can be certain that if a US Carrier is attacked, Bush will not hesitate to respond with every means at his disposal.

351 posted on 12/22/2004 12:46:19 PM PST by Crusher138 (Support capitalism. Check out www.USAPoliTees.com)
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