Posted on 11/21/2004 11:45:29 AM PST by TapTheSource
China Rapidly Modernizes for War With U.S.
Alexandr Nemets Tuesday, Aug. 10, 2004
During the last several months, there have been numerous hints in the Chinese and Taiwanese media indicating that war is more likely than believed here in the West.
Some strategists suggest that the 2008 Olympics scheduled for Beijing constitute a key benchmark, after which a war may be possible. However, it is clear that both nations are preparing for a conflict in the near term, and that 2008 may not be as pivotal as some experts believe.
In fact, China’s media have been repeating the mantra in their news reports that the People’s Liberation Army is preparing to gain a victory in this “internal military conflict in a high-tech environment.”
Chinese war planners have studied carefully the recent U.S.-Iraq War, a war that demonstrated to PLA strategists that U.S. military might is derived from its technological superiority.
China’s military experts conducted similar studies after America’s first Gulf War. One military study written by two Chinese colonels entitled “Unrestricted Warfare” suggested that China could not compete with America’s technological prowess.
Instead, China had to develop “asymmetrical” warfare to defeat the U.S. in any conflict.
Interestingly, “Unrestricted Warfare” became an instant best seller in China after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks. In the 1998 book, the Chinese colonels suggested that a successful bombing by Osama bin Laden of the World Trade Center would be an example of this new “unrestricted warfare” concept.
Apparently, China feels much better positioned after the recent Iraq War and wants to challenge the U.S. on a technological level.
Almost instantly after the Iraq War, in May 2003, China’s President and Communist Party General Secretary Hu Jintao declared at the party’s Politburo meeting the necessity of “active support of national defense and modernization of the army.”
Hu emphasized the need for further integrating information technology (IT) into the PLA and mobilizing China’s entire scientific and technological potential for PLA’s needs.
As a result, the PLA’s modernization in these areas has accelerated significantly.
Since the second half of 2003, the PLA has been engaged in the latest stage of its RMA – Revolution in Military Affairs – program, which was officially announced by the chairman of China Central Military Commission, Jiang Zemin, in his speech on Sept. 1, 2003.
He emphasized that that PLA should transform itself into a “smaller and much smarter science- and technology-based army.”
Jiang defined the major tasks of new PLA reform as follows:
Reducing PLA’s ranks, primarily ground forces, by 200,000.
Maximizing IT and other advanced technologies – including nanotechnologies, space technologies, electromagnetic weapons, etc.
Improving the educational and qualitative training of PLA servicemen.
Transforming the PLA into an “army of one” that is comparatively smaller and of very high quality, similar to the U.S. Army.
Acquiring the most advanced weaponry.
The Russia Connection
During 2003 and 2004, Russia – jointly with Belarus and Ukraine – has been a major source of advanced weapons for the PLA.
According to official figures from Russia’s weapons export state monopoly, Rosoboronexport, Russia’s total weapons export in 2003 approached $5.7 billion, making Russia the second largest arms exporter after the U.S. (Please note that China is arguably the leading arms exporter in quantity of arms transported, as its weaponry is considerably less expensive than that of the U.S.)
China has purchased 38 percent of Russian arms exports, or around $2.2 billion.
If one takes into account the weapons deliveries from Belarus and Ukraine to China, along with “double use” nuclear and space technologies supplied by Russia to China, then Chinese real arms imports from greater Russia would, in my estimation, be $4 billion.
Clearly, Russia and her allies have been a huge factor supporting the PLA in its rapid modernization and planned confrontation with the U.S.
3-Pronged Strategy
The PLA has been following its “three-way policy” of advanced weapons acquisition.
This three-pronged strategy calls for China to gain technologically advanced weaponry through (1) imports, (2) joint (Chinese-foreign) weapons R&D, and (3) independent weapons R&D within China.
The details of this mechanism were given in the article “China’s military affairs in 2003,” published by the Taiwanese journal Zhonggong yanjiu (China Communism Research) in February 2004.
According to Taiwanese experts, though weapons import and joint R&D still play the major role in PLA modernization, the role of “independent R&D” has been increasing gradually.
Appointed in March 2003, new Chinese Defense Minister (former chief of Defense Ministry’s Armament Division) Col.-Gen. Cao Gangchuan was personally in charge of this work.
He has tried to decrease China’s dependence on Russian arms and increase the share of advanced weapons imports from Germany, France and Israel.
China also is engaged in joint weapons R&D projects with EU and NATO countries, including R&D of mid-range air-to-air missiles and highly precise satellite positioning (Galileo project).
The Air Force
China believes that in a conflict with Taiwan, air dominance will be key to a quick victory.
The PLA has been beefing up its PLA Air Force (PLAAF) and aircraft troops of the PLA Navy (PLAN).
Reportedly, by the end of February 2004, the PLAAF purchased from Russia 76 SU-30 MKK fighters belonging to the advanced “4 plus” generation.
PLAN air troops obtained 24 even more advanced SU-30 MKK fighters.
There is no data regarding future deliveries of the “finished” SU-30 from Russia to China; however, the Chinese aircraft industry is more or less capable now of producing the SU-30 as well as other fighters belonging to the fourth generation, or close to this level.
Dramatic modernization of China’s First Aviation Industry Corp., or AVIC-1, from 2001 to 2004, is of principal importance here (the data in this account are given in the above-mentioned article in the Zhonggong yanjiu journal).
Four major companies are developing China’s jet-manufacturing capability. Interestingly, each of these companies recently underwent radical modernization and upgrading, including advanced equipment obtained from Europe’s Airbus, claiming the help is for “cooperation in passenger aircraft production.”
Shenyang Aircraft Corp. continued, in the past year, to produce SU-27 SK (J-11) heavy fighters from Russian kits at a rate of at least 25 units annually, and the share of Chinese-made components surpassed 70 percent.
The same company now prepares SU-30 MKK (J-11A) fighters for manufacturing.
In the frame of “independent R&D” within China, the Chengdu Aircraft Corp. has mastered the serial production of medium J-10 fighters and FC-1 light fighters. These planes reportedly can match the U.S. F-16 fighter.
Here are some other developments in China’s air wing:
Guizhou Aircraft Corp. developed the advanced Shanying fighter-trainer, while Xian Aircraft Corp. mostly finished developing the new generation of FBC-1 (JH-7) long-range fighter-bomber, which became known as JH-7A.
Other enterprises, belonging to AVIC-1, mastered production of KAB-500 guided bombs and several kinds of air-to-air and air-to ground missiles.
By the end of 2003, the new generation of Flying Leopard, i.e., JH-7A, was being tested. This fighter-bomber’s weapons include new air-to-air and air-to-ground missiles of beyond-vision range, guided bombs, etc. This aircraft is adapted for anti-radar reconnaissance, effective low-altitude strikes against large naval vessels, and general strikes of ground-based and naval targets.
By the end of 2004, as a result of supply from Russia and increased fighter production at AVIC-1 subsidiaries, the number of advanced fighters of various kinds in PLAN air troops and the PLAAF – including SU-27 (J-11), SU-30 (J-11A), J-10, FC-1, Shanying, FBC-1 (JH-7) and JH-7A – could surpass an estimated 400 units. The Sea Component
China also sees its navy as critical in any successful assault on Taiwan.
The PLA Navy (PLAN) has numerous Chinese-Russian projects under way this year and next, including:
Purchase of two Russian Sovremenny destroyers, equipped with improved ship-to-ship supersonic cruise missiles (SSM) Sunburn 3M80MBE of 240 km range. Initially, Sunburn had a range of 160 km. However, in 2001-2003, Raduga Design Bureau in Dubna (about 150 km north of Moscow) designed, under PLAN’s orders, a much more lethal version of SSM.
Very probably, serial production of new SSM would be mastered in China, so it would be installed on two Sovremenny destroyers, purchased by PLAN in 1999-2000, on Chinese-built Luhu- and Luhai-class destroyers as well as Jiangwei-class frigates. According to media reports in the Hong Kong and Taiwan media, two new Sovremenny destroyers could be transferred to PLAN before the end of 2005.
Purchase of eight Kilo submarines, equipped by “super-advanced” 3M54E (CLUB-S) submarine-launched anti-ship missiles. In 2003, China already obtained 50 missiles of this kind, which would greatly improve PLAN’s striking capacity. China intends to organize production of these missiles. They probably also could be used on Chinese-built conventional submarines of the Song class.
New Kilo submarines could enter PLAN service in 2005 or the first half of 2006. (Information regarding destroyers and conventional submarines was repeated in several articles in Zhonggong yanjiu in January 2003 through February 2004 and in multiple media reports from Hong Kong during the same period.)
Construction of “093 project” nuclear attack submarines and the “094 project” strategic nuclear submarine, using Russian plans and technology, at Huludao (a port city in northeast Liaoning province) military shipbuilding plant. By the end of 2005, PLAN would have in its service at least two “093 project” and at least one “094 project” nuclear submarines. Reportedly, Russia had to make significant improvements in design and weapons of these submarines, in accordance with Chinese customers’ requirements.
Along with Russian contracts is the construction of a new generation of destroyers, frigates and conventional submarines at modernized shipbuilding plants in Dalian, Shanghai, Qingdao and Wuhan cities. An upgraded PLA could be capable pf establishing sea control around Taiwan in 2008.
Aso important is the fact that both the PLAAF and PLAN would be equipped, by 2008, with perfect military information technology systems, more precisely by C4ISR (command, control, computers, communication, intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance) systems, which would make the use of the listed weapon systems much more effective.
I think Ptarmigan here was just explaining that a South Korean leader (Park Chung Hee in the 1970s) had worked in the past to shore up relations with Japan. I was just observing that he later got killed, maybe not for that. I hope the relationship between Japan and Korea is still improving. There was a history of bitterness there that the end of WWII hopefully drew to a close. The Korean war saw Japanese helping Koreans defend themselves from the scourge of communism.
Good thing those furniture sets are ugly as heck, isn't it?
You must be the same guy who owns all that swampland in FLorida.
The Chicoms can afford to wait until their panda-hugging cohorts have bribed and cheated their way back to power.
They already own the Panama Canal and strategic ports in Longbeach, California.
Mr. Powell believes in the middle way.
I had the same thought.
But the furniture sales companies are getting the product dirt-cheap and selling it with very healthy markups, so I imagine that soon all of the bulk sales companies will be selling 100% imports.
I looked at another company, Bombay Company, and they are already 90% imports overall.
Depressing, because we can make good furniture here in the U.S. though admittedly most of what we have been making here in the U.S. for the last 20 years has been largely low quality product.
Long range ballistic missiles are being mass produced thanks to super computer technology given to the chicoms by a failed space missile launch. The technology to send a missile into orbit - with a payload -was given surrepticiously to the Chicoms by an american satellite firm who just happened to lose their satellite in China when the chinese provided rocket accidentally blew up and took the payload with it.
This was big news in the Clinton era but is too large for the MSM to stretch their minds around.
Thing is, there's a store just down the road from my house that sells American furniture. It's called "North Carolina Furniture," I think--they might've changed their name since the last time I was there.
I've never thought of Bombay Company as a serious furniture store--more like an accessory place. Need an overpriced, ornate-looking bowl? That's your place. Need a new armchair? Ignore it.
I still think you can tell imports from American with one simple method: the import furniture is terrible. And there might be low-quality American furniture, but at least it looks good.
You can't think like an American and assign American motives to the Chicoms, the Mujaheed or the Europeancs for that matter.
Chinese are not "modern", they are the middle kingdom - the center of the universe and it has only been a few hundred years since they were (in their minds) the owners of all things High-tech. Nukeing the US restores the balance of power. they don't want our land - they just want us to disappear.
The average Mujaheed wants to eliminate us for very different reasons but with the same result. They are all content to take what spoils are left after the elimination of western competition. There is no sharing in their world view.
I read in the Wall Street Journal a few years about a good custom maker of big pieces who can take an order and ship to you in just a few weeks.
I don't know if the company is still in business, but at the time I believe that the WSJ reported that the company's business was booming.
Good for them. I knew there were still options in the American-made furniture market.
You are correct and China has also menaced Korea and Japan (and vice versa) not to mention Vietnam recently. In other posts from yesterday I had qualified that statement by saying "but she likes to push her neighbors around" and I should have said that in the post you refer to. My larger point is that the hysteria on this thread about a preemptive Chinese invasion in the Western hemisphere is not likely from an historical point of view, unlike Russia/Soviets. That is why our strategy has been to contain and encircle China as we attempted to in Vietnam and are doing with Japan, Taiwan, India, our eastern Pacific bases, even Russia, etc.
I too have grave doubts about the accuracy of the CIA. It's been one huge liability for a very long time. Hopefully this is now changing
Don't forget that in the years leading up to the start of WW2, France was Germany's largest trading partner and the United States was Japan's biggest trading partner.
What is particularly interesting is that in the years leading up to Pearl Harbor, the Japanese were buying all the U.S. scrap metal, iron, etc. Little did we know they were using that scrap to build the Japanese Navy, Zeros, etc.
Chinese are good in copying things. They are quite bad in inventing new things. Think of what they have used the gunpowder for. Fireworks.
The very idea of their society was built on continuity. That meant little change. Therefore it will have to take quite a lot of time to shift the paradigm of chinese society.
"This next decade could be known as the "China Decade", where we first bleed jobs to China, then we pour real blood."
I agree. Except I think it'll be in two decades instead of one. They are very patient and like anything that further increases their chances. However, if the trend starts to move towards protectionism before they're ready, God willing, they might take a "It's now or never" attitude and go for war. If we do something real early, like recognize Taiwan as an independent nation in the next 4 years (like they deserve), it could force China to back down, taking away their future catalyst for war.
"They could build a fleet rapidly and the world would assume it was meant for Taiwan, but strike south into oil rich Borneo and the East Indies. I think a ship like the Tarawa would be easy for them, perhaps using Ka-31 as the transport helicopters."
They could also use it as an unspoken threat of invasion against Japan and S. Korea to get them to kick out US forces and stop supplying us with military-critical components/materials.
The assumption you make is that the chinese, if they ever engaged in warfare against the US, would meet us mano-a-mano. It is common knowledge to all that facing the US in open warfare, where all the advantages inherent in the American style of warfare (3rd generation maneuver) come into play is basically a death trap. There is no force on earth that is as adept at destroying massed formations of men/aircraft/naval resources like the US is.
Thus, if the Chinese send their ships against ours in blue water (deep open ocean) the Chinese will lose. If they send their J-11s and J-10s against our F-15s and F-22s, they will lose. If they send their T-72s against our Abrams ....you get the picture.
The Chinese are not dumb enough to follow Saddam's example of hoping to match the US blow for blow. Not even the Russians could hope to last in an open conventional war against us.
What the Chinese will do is follow the formula that has consistently defeated super-power/regional-power level nations. 4th generation decentralized warfare (whcih defeated the US in Lebanon and Vietnam, Russia in Afghanistan and Chechnya, the French in Algeria etc etc).
And to this the Chinese will meld a new animal. A high tect core that they observed wroking well against NATO in Bosnia (when NATO jets were bombing microwave ovens and reporting that as 'hundreds' of tank kills when in effect they destroyed only a handfull). That is not high-tech per se, but the Chinese will cloak it in a high tech glove eg using parasitic microsatellites to knowck out our eyes in space.
Thus do not expect Sovremmny destroyers going against the Nimitz! That would be suicide (for the Chinese). Expect all sorts of tricks though.
China would be ridiculously asinine to ever try to meet the US tank for tank. The US military is just too well-versed at handling such threats. But it falls apart when it meets amorphous challenges that adapt on the fly and attack from 'unfair' angles.
Eg. container ships filled with explosives that cause all shipping lanes to the US to be closed, chocking the American economy.
The Chinese hope to someday have a military that is American-like, but they know victory does not lie in arm-wrestling Uncle Sam in an open table. No nation (and i mean NONE) can face the US in open traditional conventional warfare and win. They would be destroyed in days/weeks. However change your stratagems and our great strengths become pliable weaknesses.
And the Chinese have been studying our military paradigm for decades now. And they know very well that they are the under dog (and are thus not overly confident). Even when China (note when ...not if but when) becomes a super-power they will still think as if they are fighting as under-dogs, because they will be. We (the US) need to see them as a viable and potent threat.
If we don't what will happen will be akin to the events that occured before Pearl Harbor. Where it was a common joke that the Japanese couldn't 'fly straight because their eyes were slanted.'
Pearl Harbor proved they could fly straight enough.
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