Posted on 11/21/2004 11:45:29 AM PST by TapTheSource
China Rapidly Modernizes for War With U.S.
Alexandr Nemets Tuesday, Aug. 10, 2004
During the last several months, there have been numerous hints in the Chinese and Taiwanese media indicating that war is more likely than believed here in the West.
Some strategists suggest that the 2008 Olympics scheduled for Beijing constitute a key benchmark, after which a war may be possible. However, it is clear that both nations are preparing for a conflict in the near term, and that 2008 may not be as pivotal as some experts believe.
In fact, Chinas media have been repeating the mantra in their news reports that the Peoples Liberation Army is preparing to gain a victory in this internal military conflict in a high-tech environment.
Chinese war planners have studied carefully the recent U.S.-Iraq War, a war that demonstrated to PLA strategists that U.S. military might is derived from its technological superiority.
Chinas military experts conducted similar studies after Americas first Gulf War. One military study written by two Chinese colonels entitled Unrestricted Warfare suggested that China could not compete with Americas technological prowess.
Instead, China had to develop asymmetrical warfare to defeat the U.S. in any conflict.
Interestingly, Unrestricted Warfare became an instant best seller in China after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks. In the 1998 book, the Chinese colonels suggested that a successful bombing by Osama bin Laden of the World Trade Center would be an example of this new unrestricted warfare concept.
Apparently, China feels much better positioned after the recent Iraq War and wants to challenge the U.S. on a technological level.
Almost instantly after the Iraq War, in May 2003, Chinas President and Communist Party General Secretary Hu Jintao declared at the partys Politburo meeting the necessity of active support of national defense and modernization of the army.
Hu emphasized the need for further integrating information technology (IT) into the PLA and mobilizing Chinas entire scientific and technological potential for PLAs needs.
As a result, the PLAs modernization in these areas has accelerated significantly.
Since the second half of 2003, the PLA has been engaged in the latest stage of its RMA Revolution in Military Affairs program, which was officially announced by the chairman of China Central Military Commission, Jiang Zemin, in his speech on Sept. 1, 2003.
He emphasized that that PLA should transform itself into a smaller and much smarter science- and technology-based army.
Jiang defined the major tasks of new PLA reform as follows:
Reducing PLAs ranks, primarily ground forces, by 200,000.
Maximizing IT and other advanced technologies including nanotechnologies, space technologies, electromagnetic weapons, etc.
Improving the educational and qualitative training of PLA servicemen.
Transforming the PLA into an army of one that is comparatively smaller and of very high quality, similar to the U.S. Army.
Acquiring the most advanced weaponry.
The Russia Connection
During 2003 and 2004, Russia jointly with Belarus and Ukraine has been a major source of advanced weapons for the PLA.
According to official figures from Russias weapons export state monopoly, Rosoboronexport, Russias total weapons export in 2003 approached $5.7 billion, making Russia the second largest arms exporter after the U.S. (Please note that China is arguably the leading arms exporter in quantity of arms transported, as its weaponry is considerably less expensive than that of the U.S.)
China has purchased 38 percent of Russian arms exports, or around $2.2 billion.
If one takes into account the weapons deliveries from Belarus and Ukraine to China, along with double use nuclear and space technologies supplied by Russia to China, then Chinese real arms imports from greater Russia would, in my estimation, be $4 billion.
Clearly, Russia and her allies have been a huge factor supporting the PLA in its rapid modernization and planned confrontation with the U.S.
3-Pronged Strategy
The PLA has been following its three-way policy of advanced weapons acquisition.
This three-pronged strategy calls for China to gain technologically advanced weaponry through (1) imports, (2) joint (Chinese-foreign) weapons R&D, and (3) independent weapons R&D within China.
The details of this mechanism were given in the article Chinas military affairs in 2003, published by the Taiwanese journal Zhonggong yanjiu (China Communism Research) in February 2004.
According to Taiwanese experts, though weapons import and joint R&D still play the major role in PLA modernization, the role of independent R&D has been increasing gradually.
Appointed in March 2003, new Chinese Defense Minister (former chief of Defense Ministrys Armament Division) Col.-Gen. Cao Gangchuan was personally in charge of this work.
He has tried to decrease Chinas dependence on Russian arms and increase the share of advanced weapons imports from Germany, France and Israel.
China also is engaged in joint weapons R&D projects with EU and NATO countries, including R&D of mid-range air-to-air missiles and highly precise satellite positioning (Galileo project).
The Air Force
China believes that in a conflict with Taiwan, air dominance will be key to a quick victory.
The PLA has been beefing up its PLA Air Force (PLAAF) and aircraft troops of the PLA Navy (PLAN).
Reportedly, by the end of February 2004, the PLAAF purchased from Russia 76 SU-30 MKK fighters belonging to the advanced 4 plus generation.
PLAN air troops obtained 24 even more advanced SU-30 MKK fighters.
There is no data regarding future deliveries of the finished SU-30 from Russia to China; however, the Chinese aircraft industry is more or less capable now of producing the SU-30 as well as other fighters belonging to the fourth generation, or close to this level.
Dramatic modernization of Chinas First Aviation Industry Corp., or AVIC-1, from 2001 to 2004, is of principal importance here (the data in this account are given in the above-mentioned article in the Zhonggong yanjiu journal).
Four major companies are developing Chinas jet-manufacturing capability. Interestingly, each of these companies recently underwent radical modernization and upgrading, including advanced equipment obtained from Europes Airbus, claiming the help is for cooperation in passenger aircraft production.
Shenyang Aircraft Corp. continued, in the past year, to produce SU-27 SK (J-11) heavy fighters from Russian kits at a rate of at least 25 units annually, and the share of Chinese-made components surpassed 70 percent.
The same company now prepares SU-30 MKK (J-11A) fighters for manufacturing.
In the frame of independent R&D within China, the Chengdu Aircraft Corp. has mastered the serial production of medium J-10 fighters and FC-1 light fighters. These planes reportedly can match the U.S. F-16 fighter.
Here are some other developments in Chinas air wing:
Guizhou Aircraft Corp. developed the advanced Shanying fighter-trainer, while Xian Aircraft Corp. mostly finished developing the new generation of FBC-1 (JH-7) long-range fighter-bomber, which became known as JH-7A.
Other enterprises, belonging to AVIC-1, mastered production of KAB-500 guided bombs and several kinds of air-to-air and air-to ground missiles.
By the end of 2003, the new generation of Flying Leopard, i.e., JH-7A, was being tested. This fighter-bombers weapons include new air-to-air and air-to-ground missiles of beyond-vision range, guided bombs, etc. This aircraft is adapted for anti-radar reconnaissance, effective low-altitude strikes against large naval vessels, and general strikes of ground-based and naval targets.
By the end of 2004, as a result of supply from Russia and increased fighter production at AVIC-1 subsidiaries, the number of advanced fighters of various kinds in PLAN air troops and the PLAAF including SU-27 (J-11), SU-30 (J-11A), J-10, FC-1, Shanying, FBC-1 (JH-7) and JH-7A could surpass an estimated 400 units. The Sea Component
China also sees its navy as critical in any successful assault on Taiwan.
The PLA Navy (PLAN) has numerous Chinese-Russian projects under way this year and next, including:
Purchase of two Russian Sovremenny destroyers, equipped with improved ship-to-ship supersonic cruise missiles (SSM) Sunburn 3M80MBE of 240 km range. Initially, Sunburn had a range of 160 km. However, in 2001-2003, Raduga Design Bureau in Dubna (about 150 km north of Moscow) designed, under PLANs orders, a much more lethal version of SSM.
Very probably, serial production of new SSM would be mastered in China, so it would be installed on two Sovremenny destroyers, purchased by PLAN in 1999-2000, on Chinese-built Luhu- and Luhai-class destroyers as well as Jiangwei-class frigates. According to media reports in the Hong Kong and Taiwan media, two new Sovremenny destroyers could be transferred to PLAN before the end of 2005.
Purchase of eight Kilo submarines, equipped by super-advanced 3M54E (CLUB-S) submarine-launched anti-ship missiles. In 2003, China already obtained 50 missiles of this kind, which would greatly improve PLANs striking capacity. China intends to organize production of these missiles. They probably also could be used on Chinese-built conventional submarines of the Song class.
New Kilo submarines could enter PLAN service in 2005 or the first half of 2006. (Information regarding destroyers and conventional submarines was repeated in several articles in Zhonggong yanjiu in January 2003 through February 2004 and in multiple media reports from Hong Kong during the same period.)
Construction of 093 project nuclear attack submarines and the 094 project strategic nuclear submarine, using Russian plans and technology, at Huludao (a port city in northeast Liaoning province) military shipbuilding plant. By the end of 2005, PLAN would have in its service at least two 093 project and at least one 094 project nuclear submarines. Reportedly, Russia had to make significant improvements in design and weapons of these submarines, in accordance with Chinese customers requirements.
Along with Russian contracts is the construction of a new generation of destroyers, frigates and conventional submarines at modernized shipbuilding plants in Dalian, Shanghai, Qingdao and Wuhan cities. An upgraded PLA could be capable pf establishing sea control around Taiwan in 2008.
Aso important is the fact that both the PLAAF and PLAN would be equipped, by 2008, with perfect military information technology systems, more precisely by C4ISR (command, control, computers, communication, intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance) systems, which would make the use of the listed weapon systems much more effective.
That's incredibly naive.
One of the problems if you will is that lowered taxes just fuel more appetite for their cheap products hindering the balance of trade all the more. We're in quite a pickle.
We need to bring back the Harley Davidson culture of building it better, cheaper, and then market it as American!
Seriously... to what point? turn us all into rice harvesting zombies? I dont get it. Capitalism is growing faster in China than anywhere....
The problem is that it's state capitalism. Think "Nazi Germany." They have their sights set on Taiwan, and are encroaching on third world targets such as Latin America and Africa. The ChiComs are using the North Korean nuke problem as a bargaining chip over Taiwan. What sort of a freedom-loving country would do such a thing?
Think: Peace in Our Time.
You can't trust China. Koreans know that first hand.
So do the Japanese.
You mean the diplomacy of threatening to attack Taiwan, which they say is just a 'province' of the Chicoms - shades of Saddam and Kuwait? THAT diplomacy?
Yes, them too. Japan has a long history of invading Korea. Koreans never like the Japanese for what they did. Japan during World War II did some horrible things to Koreans, like rape, enslave, torture, and murder. You don't hear about that today. I know this a lot because my parents grew up in South Korea.
"Capitalism is growing faster in China than anywhere...."
No, the Communists are using us to build Communism...just like Lenin did during the New Economic Policy. The Communists are just providing us slave labor. They will not let a middle class develop under any circumstances because that could lead to a genuine challenge to Communist rule. The only middle class you see developing in Red China is among the Communist bosses themselves. When the time comes, all Chinese who have been tainted by doing business with the West will be jailed or liquidated (again, just as the Soviets did when the wrapped up the NEP).
Good idea BUT we are NOT competitive, price wise.
People are unwilling to pay 2-3 times as much for an item that maybe made better elsewhere.
Nuclear deterrence can work both ways. Would the United States risk getting involved in a war with China if it invaded Taiwan? The bottome line is that China will not go the "war route" if it is not in China's interest to do so. If it IS in China's interest to use force, they will, if they have the means. That is why they are acquiring the means. Does that mean they will use force? No, not necessarily. But if they have acquired the means to use force then they have that option and, obviously, at that point it becomes a possibility. You see?
You're right to mention the mistakes Japan made in the past. But I think today, South Koreans should be hopeful for peacful intentions and strategic support from Japan. I realize Japan will forever have an internal power struggle over fascism, but I think that's true everywhere. Today, Japan has a firm place in the west, as does South Korea. Both countries are our vanguard for freedom in the far east.
Park Chung-hee tried to mend fences with Japan in the 1960s to 1970s.
"Nuclear deterrence can work both ways."
The Communists view nuclear deterance as a way to ensure all wars between them and "reactionary" capitalists go the way of Korea and Vietnam. They know they would lose in a direct military matchup. Although, that might change if the Eurasian Alliance starts bearing major fruit.
All countries have interests. When those interests coincide or when one side is much weaker than the other you will have peace. When interests do not coincide, the differences are irreconcilable and there is not an overwhelmingly dominant power in the equation you will often have war. "Capitalism and free trade = peace" sounds great but it is nonsense.
The bottom line is that China will not go the "war route" if it is not in China's interest to do so. If it IS in China's interest to use force, they will, if they have the means
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Do you think China does not know what is in their interest?
Do you think they think actually invading Taiwan rather than just threatening to do so is in their interest? Do you think they haven't noticed all seven of our carrier battlegroups have assembled in the eastern Pacific this month as a 'little' show to impress them of our resolve? Do you imagine they have failed to notice the nuclear frigate we have just parked in the Sea of Japan off Korea? Suddenly the commies are making nice about 'the need for co-operation'. Uh huh, they durn well have noticed we're not pinned down in the Middle East with a blind eye to our interests in the Pacific Rim.
So I know this but Rumsfeld and Rice don't? Look people, our leaders are on this. Chill out we are in good hands with this team. Another gift from our great win in the election
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