I like Rutan and his accomplishments but the stuff he's predicting is frankly a pipe dream. That is unless there's a major breakthrough in propulsion technology. Affordable space travel is like commercial nuclear fusion, always 30 years away.
Well, it isn't impossible.
in 1900, cars were still called "horseless carraiges"
in 1940, air power was a decisive factor in the opening rounds of WW2.
What can WE do in 30-40 years?
Don't underestimate the American Spirit..
Unlike Fusion, man-in-space has been well proven. The only barrier is cost. As we get "richer" (and we are, as shown by housing square footage, travel, capabilities of private vehicles) we will be able to afford the existing space systems easier. Simultaneously, space travel will get significantly cheaper.
At some affordability point, you reach critical mass, and the thing explodes. Rutan just thinks it will be soon. I don't know.
One thing to remember. Rutan makes it a point not to tell people what he's going to do. He does it, then tells people what he's done.
This is an important thing in the circles he runs in. There are innumerable people with some fancy design for this airplane or that. Lot's of whack jobs out there.
But Rutan's the real deal. That's why Paul Allen hooked up with him. If Rutan say this stuff will happen (and he knows all the players and what they're up to at the fringe of the military top secret stuff), then I tend to think he might be right. Perhaps exagerating the schedule a bit, but not by much.
There has been a major breakthrough, the cost in space has been a management process problem, not a technology problem. Burt's little spaceshipone blew the old paradigm of big, expensive government access to space out of the water. The money tells the tale and with Branson offering Scaled Composites a 200 million dollar deal to build 5 passenger versions of SS1, we've already reached the point where the era of expensive access to space is rapidly coming to an end.