Home sweet home -- impossible? Californians fear high prices may drive young people away

San Francisco Chronicle ^ | 11/18/4 | Kelly Zito

[SmithL]

More than 50 percent of California residents said in a survey being released today that they are very concerned that fast-rising home prices will lock out younger generations from the housing market.

That trend already appears under way for those ages 18 to 34, with 31 percent saying high housing costs are forcing them to ponder a move from their region or out of the state, according to the study by San Francisco's Public Policy Institute of California.

Researchers at the nonpartisan think tank say an exodus of young workers could undermine state's economy, especially in the Bay Area, which relies on a skilled, mobile labor pool to drive its dominant technology industry.

"If the younger adults are thinking about moving out of a metro area like the Bay Area, the question is, where do you get the workforce?" said Mark Baldassare, the institute's director of research. "Who's going to come in and replace the skilled workers that we're going to need for our economy?"

[Joe Hadenuf]

We have no need for a 3500 sq foot home. That's fine if you have 5 or 6 young kids. We spend too much time outside here and only two boys, and one is all but grown up and is basically only home when he's sleeping, (and eating) since he's working most of the time.

[Arthalion]

I never thought I could afford to live in California, but if you can get a foothold, you can buy into the high cost of real estate in the area you live and ride it out. Timing is everything. If I ever move out of state, I will be able to trade way up in terms of a home.

Exactly. I paid $225,000 for my current home (in the Central Valley) and my out of state family gave me grief over it for months (my sister in Missouri derives endless joy from telling me what that money would have bought where she lives), but the reality is that California real estate never drops in value for long periods of time. My home is now worth more than $300,000 and when I finally move out of this state (5-10 years) I'll have enough equity to buy that cabin on a lake (surrounded by thousands of acres of my own private wilderness) that my wife and I have always wanted. It's extremely hard to get a foothold in the California real estate market, but if you do the returns can be enormous.

[Dan from Michigan]

Holy #^#t.

That'll go for probably about $135,000 here....in an expensive county.

[luckodeirish]

I'm with you. Bought my first townhouse in 1988 in Irvine for 180K, almost killed me. Kept it, now rental property, and the townhomes around it are selling for 645K. bought in Rossmoor in 1995 for 380K, sold for 800K in 2003, was able to buy seven figure dream home 2 blocks from ocean. But I feel for the young kids trying to get a start, cause when I started it was do-able.

[Dan from Michigan]

$559,900 3 Bed, 2 Bath 1,323 Sq. Ft.

I saw something similar for $185,000-$200,000....in an 'expensive county'.

[anniegetyourgun]

Things were much better by 1988 too....thank you, Ronald Reagan...

[freeasinbeer]

Yeah, Stanford is basically part of Palo Alto, although technically it is it´s own City. It is nuts here (in more ways than one, ie. Political nuts)

[luckodeirish]

Yep, I think all of us that bought with the super high interest rates did a re fi real quick and got awsome rates thanks to Ronnie, but some who got stuck with the Carter interest rates lost their homes.

[cmsgop]

Check out #155, LOL!

[American Vet Repairman]

I could work in CA for twice the money I make in NC and still live at a lower lifestyle in CA.

[Age of Reason]

No.

But I did think of Alaska.

Worse case, I might consider Nova Scotia.

[Joe Hadenuf]

Today the entire neighborhood has been purged of undesireables, the 90 year old homes in the neighborhood look like something out of a postcard, and the 2100sq ft 4/2 next door to his home sold last month for $650,000 (his 2900 sq ft 4/2 with seperate basement apartment is probably worth even more).

Gentrification is rapidly turning previously slumlike neighborhoods in East Palo Alto, Oakland, and Richmond into "bargain priced fixer uppers" located in "historically ethnic neighborhoods". There are still huge swaths of slums that I wouldn't drive through unarmed, but they are steadily shrinking as the slumlords sell out to the real estate investors, and the century old homes are restored to their former glories or levelled for modern development.

That's happening all over California. As more people come in, they are investing, and turning older neighborhoods into very nice places. It's priceing the low life way out! Tall financial fences make for good neighbors. Believe it or not, some developers are buying up tracts of south central LA, and turning them into some pretty nice areas. We new this would happen. The land is way to valuable for slums and gang bangers, illegals etc. I am talking prime land, between the ocean and downtown LA. Most of the rif raf are being forced to leave due to the cost, and they many are heading out of state. LOL!

With the prices they way they are, we knew this was going to happen. And as the population grows older, the warmer climates, with the best year round weather will prevail.

[Age of Reason]

Ha! What a ripoff.

Only 400K for this starter home (imagine, all this on your own expansive 16 by 95 foot property!):

http://www.realtor.com/FindHome/HomeListing.asp?snum=5&frm=bymap&pgnum=1&mls=xmls&js=on&fid=so&vtsort=&ss_aywr=&poe=realtor&areaid=744&ct=Flushing&st=NY&zp=&primaryZp=&nearbyZp=&mnprice=0&mxprice=99999999&mnbed=0&mnbath=0&typ=1&mnsqft=0&exft=0&exft=issty&exft=0&exft=0&lid=Enter+MLS+ID&sid=03C43CB29727C&snumxlid=1037876266&lnksrc=00002

[Joe Hadenuf]

It's not a rip off. You have to understand something about realestate. In that link you provided, they will be buying the land, not that shack. I'd bet who ever buys that will raise it, and put up two or three story, multi unit condos, or whatever, and probably make a huge profit.

Let me tell you, realestate has become so valuable in places like the coastal plain in So. Cal, people/investors are literally raising perfectly good 1800 sq ft homes and putting in two story, 2500 sq ft homes. Me, I would just remodel, or build a second story, but that's what's happening. It's unreal.

[LowOiL]

You could buy a small town for $560,000 here in North Bama.

[RedWhiteBlue]

I lived in Orange County from 92 - 94, and when I left I sold my 1500 sq. ft. condo with 2-car attached garage for $170k. Now the same condo sells for over $500k. That's just insane.

In contrast, this is what you can get for $500k where I live now (in Tom Delay's district):

3706 Colony Woods Sugar Land, TX  77479 MLS ID#: 8070022

$499,000 4 Bed, 3.5 Bath 3,931 Sq. Ft.

Estimated payment:
$2,298 Per Month*
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Get Additional Listing Information from the Houston Association of REALTORS®.

$MILLION DOLLAR VIEW$$ ON SWEETWATER GOLF COURSE, WATER, GREENBELT, ALL LOCATED ON GREAT CUL-DE-SAC LOT. NEW CARPET AND PAINT THROUGHOUT, STONE COLUMNS, STONE FLOORS AND BACKSPLASH, OPEN FLOORPLAN, FLOORED ATTIC THAT COULD BE BUILT-OUT AND PERFECT FOR MEDIA OR EXCERSISE ROOM, POOL WITH LUSH LANDSCAPING AND GAZEBO, SIDE YARD WITH PLAY AREA. THIS HOME RECENTLY APPRAISED AT $535

This listing is brokered by:		RE/MAX Heritage Office: (281) 265-7355

Property Features

Single Family Property Area: 29 - Ft. Bend Central Subdivision: Colony Woods County: Fortbend Freestanding style Traditional style Two story Year built: 1989 Year built source: Appraisal District 4 total bedroom(s) 3.5 total bath(s) 3 total full bath(s) 1 total half bath(s) Breakfast area/room Den Dining room Formal dining room Formal living room Game room Living room Approximate interior sq. ft.: 3931 Square footage source: Appraisal District 1st bedroom is 20x14 2nd bedroom is 16x10 3rd bedroom is 11x13 4th bedroom is 11x11 Breakfast area/room is 9x11 Den is 14x18 Dining room is 13x13 Game room is 21x17 Kitchen is 9x15 Living room is 20x19 Master bedroom is downstairs Electric laundry hookups Gas laundry hookups Dryer hookups Washer hookups

Inside utility room 2 fireplace(s) Gas fireplace Central air conditioning Central heat Gas heating Dishwasher Disposal Electric oven Microwave oven Electric range Freestanding range Breakfast bar Double sinks in master bathroom Tub and separate shower in master bathroom Insulated window(s) 2 car garage Attached garage Automatic garage door Pier/post/beam type foundation Brick/veneer exterior Curbs Composition roof Swimming pool Security features Community swimming pool(s) Golf course lot/frontage Southern exposure Located on a cul-de-sac Public sewer service Public water supply School District: 19 - Fort Bend Elementary School: Settlers Way Middle School: First Colony High School: Clements

[AreaMan]

You could buy a small town for $560,000 here in North Bama.

I would move in a heartbeat. But the inlaws are nearby and I don't want to take my kids away from the only grandparents they have.

[Amerigomag]

As more people come in, they are investing, and turning older neighborhoods into very nice places.

Joe when you consider that in 2003, for the first time since WWII, there was a balance between citizens coming and going to/from California you must ask yourself "Where are these new "people" coming from?"

They're illegal aliens of course.

[Joe Hadenuf]

I'd take the California home in #140 over that. The brutal heat and humidity in Texas is not habitable for humans. We'll, maybe some humans. Hehe.

[Joe Hadenuf]

Where are these new "people" coming from?" They're illegal aliens of course.

Well of course, it's the illegal aliens that works at Burger King that's buying these $800,000 homes.