[tatown]

"Face value you are 100% right.. but 150,000 provis ballot, 93,000 undervotes"

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The 93,000 spoiled ballots are not simply undervotes. Very few of these will actually result in a vote. Additionally, Blackwell (whom knows the state much better that you or I) assumes the breakdown of the provisional ballots to favor Bush. Relax...

[Bonaventure]

You're right. It is simply insane to assume all 93,000 spoiled ballots will go to Kerry. First of all, some of them are undervotes because some people chose not to vote for president. Second, some of them are overvotes, and, unless Ohio has some very strange laws, overvotes do not count.