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Nobody trades money out 4 years in advance - there is no "smart money getting out now." If countries like Russia and the EU start play politics with the dollar they will just get burned in the end. If you could defeat a nation with currency maniplulation then war would have passed away long ago. this is all nonsense. China will be forced to unpeg the dollar. things will be just fine - this is just more rhetoric against Bush by perpetrated by the usual subject. In truth, if globalism continues at the current pace, eventually their will be a basket of currencies used as a reserve. You figure about the GDP is meaningless when you consider the fact that we double our GDP every 15 years. People were saying the same thing in the 80's and they were wrong then. Notice that we did not hear this story line until after Bush won. this is the latest tack. Just where are they going to go long term? The Euro? Right now people are closing out positions taken during the election. Notice the sources that they get to ponder this. Have you even heard of 90% of them? It is just more leftist rubbish. If things are so bad why is the market doing so well? Incremental tax cuts over the next four years, tort and regulatory reform and there will be another huge boom.

It is abolutley silly to think that the dallor is going the way of the Turkish currency. Wher on earth will the money go. CHina will most likely hit a high water mark in a vouple of years and then steel down to work out their problems. We heard all if this before during the Reagan years (remember we devalues 40+% against the DM back then.) It was rubbish then and it is rubbish now.

Consumerism drives the economy. About 70% of all economists agree on this point. It is the basis for my position.

US consumerism will be in for a fairly radical departure from what has been the norm throught three waves of the boomers spending. The end of the third wave comes around in 2010.

Meanwhile the Asian countries are set for a wave of consumerism based on the age of their collective populations and their relatively booming wealth. I don't think the Euro will be the place the money goes either.

What makes you think that our GDP will continue to grow like it has??? Our GDP is a direct function of our spending as consumers here in the US. You are basing your view on the consumerism of the past 24 years. Regan had the benefit of being in office while the first wave of massive baby boom consumerism occured. Clintonn enjoyed the same phenomenon. Bush will sit through the last wave of that consumerism.

I am not parroting a left wing line.

What effect do you think China unpegging the dollar from the yuan will have?? Once camp says we buy from china at a discount today, the other says that china is already fundamentally bankrupt (over 50% of their bank loans are non performing). Unpegging the Yuan could go either way but my guess is that the discount we enjoy today will evaporate.

The debt now stands at 7.449 Trillion. Our GDP is supposed to be around 10 Trillion.

Things are going great now and will go great for the next four years or so. If you look at the population charts and the attendant spending it is very clear that we are going to see a nice little boom over the next few years.

When the spending comes to a rather abrupt change in pace from what we have known for 35 years, the economy as we know it today will change dramatically. That is not doom and gloom, it is just reality.

If you are correct that a basket of currencies becomes the reserve standard, what does this mean for the Dollar??

You may be correct that nobody trades currencies out four years. If I implied that I stand corrected. But if you don't think smart investors protect their positions out four or five years I would disagree.