Posted on 11/08/2004 11:13:53 AM PST by SJackson
SPRINGFIELD — At first glance, John Kerry’s strong showing in Illinois and Barack Obama’s overwhelming win suggest continued tough times for state Republicans.
Surrounded to the left and right by a sea of Republican red, on Election Day Illinois turned a darker shade of Democratic blue. While 11 states voted to add a ban on gay marriage to their constitutions, evangelical Republican Alan Keyes, whose campaign preached the evils of homosexuality, lost Illinois in record-setting fashion.
Yet Republicans aren’t hanging their heads and the state’s Democratic leaders aren’t likely to be confused with East or West Coast liberals. Illinois remains a complex political state. And on both sides of the aisle things here may not be as they first seem, for beneath Illinois’ dark blue electoral skin may very well beat a blood-red heart.
Simply consider that if not for Cook County, Bush would have won Illinois.
Kerry won by racking up insurmountable leads in populous Cook County, margins bolstered by increasingly strong Democratic showings in the suburbs. But downstate, Bush won handily. Paint Illinois’ counties red and blue and the map looks very much like the presidential breakdown, major population centers in blue, almost everything else in red.
Kerry won Cook County by 805,000 votes. But he won the state by only 513,000. Bush won 87 counties to Kerry’s 15.
Republican hopes
For the first time since 1994, Republicans gained a seat in the Illinois House. Senate Republicans also gained a seat. Democrats continue to control both chambers. But the gains, combined with retention of key incumbents like Elgin state Rep. Ruth Munson in areas where Kerry ran strong, gave Republicans hope and, they say, proved local issues and quality candidates have more influence than the top of the ticket.
“Reaching out to youth and continuing to give women members more active roles is going to help us continue to build upon what I’ll say are the baby steps we made in this election,” said David Dring, spokesman for Illinois House Republicans.
However, fissures remain. Keyes’ dismal showing — 27æpercent of the vote — is unlikely to dissuade conservatives from pushing for a more prominent voice. That will happen even though political experts and some fellow Republicans argue his devastating loss shows a conservative campaign focused on moral issues cannot win in Illinois.
“You have to have some ability to appeal across party lines to win in Illinois,” said U.S. Sen. Peter Fitzgerald, an Inverness Republican who will be replaced by Obama. “I don’t think that means you can’t be pro-life. I appealed across party lines because of moderate positions on guns and a pro-environmental voting record.
“I do agree you have to have something. But maybe it’s independence.”
The first test will be the naming a new Republican Party chairman. Current leader Judy Baar Topinka, also the state treasurer, is leaving the post .
“As Judy steps down, many in the Republican base are going to hold the party accountable for where we go from here,” said state Sen. Steve Rauschenberger, an Elgin Republican who ran for the U.S. Senate nomination and is eyeing a run for governor in 2006. “The next party chairman is going to be crucial.”
Democratic divide
Across the nation, moral issues such as gay marriage are being identified as the breaking point for the presidential vote. Eleven states voted to constitutionally ban gay marriages, and nine of them voted for Bush.
Democrats were, after the fact, wondering how they became so out of touch on a national level.
Ironically, such a constitutional ban on gay marriage was proposed here ... by a Democrat — Effingham state Rep. Bill Grunloh. And Grunloh lost last week to a Republican in a race that boiled down to a contest on who is most conservative.
The proposed amendment never advanced in part because state law already defines marriage as between a man and a woman — a distinction Republicans added a decade ago.
But the fact that a Democrat pushed it illustrates Illinois is hardly in lockstep with other Kerry states. For instance, almost all the states that ban smoking in public places voted for Kerry. Efforts to enact such a ban here met stiff opposition.
Observers say such issues reflect the pragmatic side of Democratic leadership in Illinois, which often looks first to ensure it maintains political control rather than set a specific partisan agenda.
“Mike Madigan (the House speaker and Democratic Party chairman) is not a very liberal guy,” said retired University of Illinois political science professor Sam Gove, who’s long followed and written about Illinois’ politics. “But he’s a very smart guy.”
Just a few months ago, Madigan was teaming with Republican leaders to oppose a state budget being pushed by Democratic leaders in the state Senate and the Democratic governor.
Contentious social issues often sharply divide members of the same party. Leaders on both sides usually try to avoid creating political civil war with issues like gay marriage and abortion.
For example, the last time there was a vote to legally protect gays from discrimination, it passed the Illinois House thanks to Chicago Democratic and suburban Republican votes. Downstate members of both parties overwhelmingly voted against it. The plan was never called for a vote in the Senate because sponsors acknowledged they didn’t have the votes and didn’t want to string out their colleagues on such a contentious issue if it couldn’t pass.
Interesting article. TY for posting it.
I believe Minnesota is somewhat the same...geographically.
Bush lost Hennepin and Ramsey (Minneapolis and St Paul) counties by such large margins, it was impossible to win the state for Bush.
The inner cities as well as the first-ring suburbs provided Kerry's strong base from which he took Minnesota's 10 EV's.
I gotta give credit to the DFL. They worked their base hard...real hard. They hit the inner city areas over and over again. They weren't content with winning 65% of the vote. They wanted more....and they got it.
It was unfortunate the the Republicans couldn't find a valid candidate to run against Obama; and many Republican voters were dismayed by the import of Alan Keyes, talented as he may be. But it was a dyed in the wool loss once Jack Ryan's divorce situ was publically exposed (thanks to his porn star ex-wife). It made it look as though the other Republicans in the area were afraid of what might be snatched out of their closets. But we still have Henry Hyde and Denny Hasterdt to brag about. There is hope in Illinois for an eventual win.
To those who say that Bush does not have a mandate, all they have to do is look at the map of election results by county. Take away the SF Bay Area, Los Angeles, Chicago, NY, and Philadelphia, and this is Bush Country!
As Walter Williams pointed out after the election in 2000, the places of greatest Democrat strength are places of major dysfunction and social pathology -- higher illiteracy rates, higher crime, higher drug use, higher illegitimacy, higher unemployment. "Red America" is made up of producers; "Blue America" is predominantly made up of users (of government services). Rather than stand for policies that will enhance the health of society, the Democrats apparently believe that their path to success rests in dumbing America down more, making more Americans dependent upon government programs, and increasing social misery and hopelessness. The Democrats are the party of despair. While their support is isolated in pools of "blue," those pools of blue are increasingly becoming social and cultural hell-holes.
Regardless of the results, Illinois is still the "Land of Lincoln."
>>evangelical Republican Alan Keyes<<
For the record, Alan Keyes in Catholic.
Yeah..... and also Dick Daley and Al Capone.
Naah, that would be Kentucky. :^)
Re: Ryan's "porn star ex-wife"
Jerri Ryan may be a poor actress and a goodlooking woman, but that combo does not make her a 'porn star.'
Indeed, she had nothing to do with the divorce case revelations and fought their public release, seeking to protect the Ryan's son from some of the more sordid stuff in it (which basically was Ryan asking his hot wife - who a lot of men covet - for oral sex in public, a 'sex club' or 'swingers club,' I think).
Jerri Ryan, to her credit, by the accounts in the court record, declined his boorish requests. Now what I expect from a 'porn star.'
So don't blame Jerry Ryan - she ostensibly didn't like her husband's conduct and grew alienated from him, at leastpartly because of it. She is right, in my book.
And she isn't and wasn't a 'porn star' who sought to release the details in the divorce record, best as I am aware.
LOL. My apologies.
In illinois it is hard to beat the Chicago vote. We need fairly mainstream candidates.
I voted for Keyes but I was pretty sure he would not do well.
We would have been better off with Poshard (D) in 1998. Old man Ryan stuck a knife in the heart and the back of the Illinois Gop and twisted.
Ouch...
Well anyways, Judith Barr Topinka holds the keys to purse strings still. But the Dems are everywhere else in state Gov.
Maybe Topinka can challenge Blagovich in 2006.
=8-)
I was told by someone who lives in DuPage County that the democrats don't show their faces there, "it's just not done".
DuPage County is about 20 miles west of Chicago.
I live in central Illinois, my county, which is filled with labor union members, voted, by a slim margin, for GW Bush, and kicked out a 20 year veteran of the state senate, an entrenched democrat, and replaced him with a pro-business Republican.
Same thing in Pa. and Mich.
Illinois is a lost cause. The commies have taken over.
Bite your tongue, dear heart. You forget: Jesus is Lord and there are a lot of praying Christians in Illinois. The Holy Spirit is alive and well here and our victory is only a matter of time.
I got faith :o)
I still believe that Illinois will wallow in leftist, Godless politics for eons!
No more strolls down Michigan Avenue for me.
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