It will be winter soon enough, with the lakes frozen solid, they can walk there.
FZUS81 KCLE 022059
ICEFBO
GREAT LAKES FREEZE-UP OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
405 PM EST TUE NOV 2 2004
EARLY FREEZE-UP POSSIBLE AT DULUTH OTHERWISE FREEZE-UP DATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE WINTER OF 2004-2005.
THE LONG RANGE OUTLOOK FOR THE WINTER OF 2004-2005 CALLS FOR AN EQUAL CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL...NEAR NORMAL...OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LAKES AND AN EQUAL CHANCE OF ABOVE...BELOW...OR NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REST OF THE LAKES.
A WEAK EL NINO PATTERN HAS DEVELOPED AS WATERS HAVE WARMED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT A MODERATE EL NINO COULD OCCUR THIS WINTER. HOWEVER...WEAK TO MODERATE EL NINOS HAVE SHOWN TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON THE WEATHER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION MAY BE POSITIVE FOR A MAJORITY OF THE WINTER WHICH WOULD LEAD TO WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
WATER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ARE RUNNING NEAR NORMAL NEAR DULUTH AND AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE REST OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS PAST SUMMER THE REGION SAW BELOW NORMAL AIR TEMPERATURES KEEPING WATER TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AS WELL FOR THE SUMMER. MILD DAYS DURING THE MONTHS OF SEPTEMBER AND OCTOBER HELPED TO KEEP WATER TEMPERATURES FROM PLUMMETING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
ICE FORMATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND DECEMBER 7TH NEAR DULUTH WHILE THE REST OF THE LAKES SHOULD NOT SEE ICE UNTIL LATE DECEMBER. ICE FORMATION WILL OCCUR DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF JANUARY IN SAULT ST MARIE MI...JANUARY 1...AND IZAAK WALTON BAY MI...JANUARY 3. THE LATEST EXPECTED DATE IS AT FRENCHETTE POINT MI WITH A DATE OF JANUARY 13TH. KEEP IN MIND THAT THESE DATES COULD CHANGE IF A STRONG EXTENDED COLD AIR OUTBREAK OCCURS OR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARM WEATHER OCCURS.
ICE FORMATION IS DETERMINED BY TWO FACTORS--THE AMOUNT OF HEAT STORED IN THE WATER FROM THE SUMMER AND HOW FAST THAT HEAT CAN BE REMOVED BY ARCTIC OUTBREAKS OF POLAR AIR AND HIGH WINDS. LONG RANGE OUTLOOKS DO NOT CONSIDER THE "STORMINESS" FACTOR WHICH CAN SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER THE LAKES THERMAL STRUCTURE OVER SHORT PERIODS OF TIME.