[GAGOPSWEEPTOVICTORY]

The trash rate is huge on these provisionals. Pretty much the voters who had outstanding absentee ballots at the time of the election and didn't present them to the clerk at the polling site and were required to vote provisionally and some of the people who moved into a new precinct from an old one will be counted.

The rest should be tossed. Since Kerry conceded, there's no incentive for the Dims to litigate and do whatever other verification of other votes that would be necessary to increase the numbers of counted provisionals. 100,000 votes will be a difficult obstacle to overcome.

[Owen]

Oh, no question the obstacle is high at 100K. But the Secy of State site gives the raw numbers for 2000 PBs. It was about 100K and 86% were valid votes.

My calculation is 155K (this year's PB total) X 0.86 = 133000.

That 133K number is smaller than Bush's lead, but that's not the threshold of concern. That lead is about 2.5% of the vote. I am under the impression there is an automatic recount at 0.25% of the vote, which is 10 times less, or 13K. So if the gap closed 133K - 13.3K = 120ishK, we're in dangerous territory.

There may be recounts allowed if requested maybe inside 0.5%, but with the concession I discount that concern.

So, there are 133K (if the 86% holds true) valid PBs and 120ishK must go Kerry. That's 90% and no, that split is very unlikely. But . . . it's mathematically possible.

I want it impossible.