Bush will win Iowa. It's over.
1) he's up by 14,000.
2) only a fraction of the 15,000 provisionals will actually be counted.
3) of the 50,000 or so absentee ballots that are outstanding, only a handful will be returned. People either will end up not voting or would have voted at their precinct on election day.
14,000 votes is too many to overcome. If we only could whittle away Wisconsin too, I'd stop hearing this Bush won by one state nonsense that some liberals are claiming.
I remain concerned about the Ohio counting. I went to secy of state site and he lists 155K PBs. The trash rate on those is unknown. The site says 86% (my calculation) were valid in 2000.
Thankfully, they are spread out all over the state. 22K are in Cleveland, but the rest are all over. Kerry's split should not be strong.
Remember, the danger is NOT that Kerry's count overtakes Bush. The danger is lower than that. It is that the gap closes to some recount threshold. Then other dangers appear.
Kerry would have to have a huge margin in those absentee and provisional ballots to win. Chances are about 1% or less.
"If we only could whittle away Wisconsin too, I'd stop hearing this Bush won by one state nonsense that some liberals are claiming."
I agree, Wisconsin has a small margin for Kerry. Do you know if all other states will be counting provisional, as well as absentee ballots?? They all should.