Released: November 02, 2004Our Call Zogby International's 2004 Predictions (as of Nov. 2, 2004 5:00pm EST)
2004 Presidential Election
|
Electoral Votes: |
Bush |
213 |
Kerry |
311 |
Too Close To Call |
Nevada (5) |
Too Close To Call |
Colorado (9) |
Zogby International Finds: Bush at 49.4%, Kerry at 49.1%
The nationwide telephone poll of 955 likely voters was conducted (November 1-2, 2004). The MOE is +/- 3.2
Here's how we got there...
2004: Repeat of 2000 Figures:
George Bush (Electoral Vote)
UT |
5
|
KS |
6
|
WY |
3
|
MS |
6
|
ID |
4
|
SC |
8
|
AK |
3
|
IN |
11
|
NE |
5
|
KY |
8
|
ND |
3
|
AL |
9
|
MT |
3
|
GA |
15
|
SD |
3
|
LA |
9
|
OK |
7
|
TX |
34
|
|
John Kerry (Electoral Vote)
ME |
4
|
MD |
10
|
VT |
3
|
CT |
7
|
IL |
21
|
HI |
4
|
RI |
4
|
NY |
31
|
DE |
3
|
MA |
12
|
NJ |
15
|
DC |
3
|
CA |
55
|
|
|
|
Red State Totals (Using Current 2004 Electoral Vote Numbers): 142
|
Blue State Totals (Using Current 2004 Electoral Vote Numbers): 172
|
2004 Battleground States:
|
2000 |
2004 Our Call |
Bush Electoral Votes |
Kerry Electoral Votes |
|
%Margin |
%Margin |
|
|
Arizona (10)* |
Bush + 6.28% |
Bush 6% |
10 |
- |
Arkansas (6)* |
Bush + 5.44% |
Bush 3% |
6 |
- |
Colorado (9) |
Bush + 8.36% |
Too Close To Call |
- |
- |
Florida (27) |
Bush + 0.01% |
Kerry .1% Trending Kerry |
- |
27 |
Iowa (7) |
Gore + 0.31% |
Kerry 5% |
- |
7 |
Michigan (17) |
Gore + 5.13% |
Kerry 6% |
- |
17 |
Minnesota (10) |
Gore + 2.4% |
Kerry 6% |
- |
10 |
Missouri (11)* |
Bush + 3.34% |
Bush 3% |
11 |
- |
Nevada (5) |
Bush + 3.55% |
Too Close To Call |
- |
- |
New Hampshire (4) * |
Bush + 1.27% |
Kerry 5% |
- |
4 |
New Mexico (5) |
Gore + 0.06% |
Kerry 3% |
- |
5 |
North Carolina (15)* |
Bush + 12.83% |
Bush 3% |
15 |
- |
Oregon (7)* |
Gore + 0.44% |
Kerry 10% |
- |
7 |
Ohio (20) |
Bush + 3.51% |
Bush 2% Trending Kerry |
- |
20 |
Pennsylvania (21) |
Gore + 4.17% |
Trending Kerry |
- |
21 |
Tennessee (11)* |
Bush + 3.86% |
Bush 4% |
11 |
- |
Virginia (13)* |
Bush + 7.00%
|
Bush
|
13
|
-
|
Washington (11)* |
Gore + 5.58% |
Kerry 11% |
- |
11 |
West Virginia (5)* |
Bush + 6.32% |
Bush 4% |
5 |
- |
Wisconsin (10) |
Gore + 0.22% |
Kerry 6% |
- |
10 |
Battleground State Totals
|
71
|
139
|
Current Grand Total:
|
213
|
311
|
* States denoted with an asterisk were polled online in Zogby Interactive surveys.(as of Nov. 2, 2004 5:00pm EST)
ZOGBY INTERNATIONAL 901 Broad Street, Utica, New York 13501 USA 1600 K Street, Suite 600, Washington,DC, 20006 USA NY phone 315.624.0200 Toll Free in the U.S. and Canada 1-877-GO-2-POLL | fax 315.624.0210 Contact sales and marketing at mailto:chad@zogby.com Contact our web manager with any comments regarding this web site.
Copyright by Zogby International.
|