Here's my take:
About 33% of the voters are in the Philly and Pittsburgh areas (plus some NJ spillovers in the east, and Erie). These areas avoting roughly 60/40 for sKerry.
The rest of the state is leaning Bush, but not as strong, maybe about 55/45 for Bush.
Taking that out means roughly no more than a 51/49 split one way or the other. Bottom line - it's gonna be close still. The thing that will decide it is the conservative T - turnout & Bush's ability to get more %% there.
Right-o about PA - the middle counties results are not in yet.