[WildTurkey]

139/175 = 80%.

[AndrewC]

Yes that is correct, but Kerry has to break even on the rest of the votes to pull out a tie. That means that he must win 90% of the 175,000 MPV. Previous experience has shown that 10% of the PV are thrown out, so Kerry must win 100% of the MPV.....
NO just joking, the calculation becomes


x + x + 139,000 = .9 * 175,000

2x = 157,500 - 139,000
2x = 18,500
x = 9,250
Kerry must win 95% of the PV in this case. It appears that the margin has moved towards 150,000 and is no longer 139,000. Kerry has a snowballs chance in hell of being President.