Posted on 11/02/2004 8:29:29 AM PST by mk2000
In 2000, late deciders went to Gore (the pseudo-incumbent)
In 1992, late decides went to Bush (but it wasn't enough)
In 1988, it was split evenly
In 1984, it was a landslide, so it doesn't matter, but I think it broke evenly
In 1980, late deciders went to the challenger (Reagan)
Kerry is no Reagan, and the Bush economy is no Carter economy.
They just had 3 undecided on MSNBC all three broke for Bush -- one Arab said he read the BinLaden transcript and decided we are losing the war on terror so voted Kerry... I won't tell you what I think of all three ...
They are also touting the lie that undecideds break to the challenger 2-1 or 4-1, despite the fact that history shows just the opposite in Presidential elections.
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Particularly in this election. I have always thought that if we get to election day or say 1 pm election day without another terriorist attack on the US, the undecideds would break big for the President. We shall see.
I am totally baffled. Harris had Bush leading every which way other than cell phone calls last night using these same numbers. Now they take those same numbers and flip it? Can anyone figure this out?
I hate that stuff. Let's not post 'interactive'polls today folks ;-) Please.
Translation: "This poll is bogus"
This is an online poll, therefore worthless.
AMEN, AMEN, AMEN.
As for their predictions of FL, OH, and PA going to Kerry, they do not have enough data to make any statistically meaningful analysis.
In 2000 the final Harris poll had it tied at 47%-47%. Zogby was the only pollster who got it right for Gore at 48% to 46% for Bush. The election went for Gore with 48.38%, Bush at 47.87%.
Harris has the most accurate prediction in election 2000. Now it is the only poll which shows that undecideds are breaking heavily in favor of Senator Kerry in the past 24 hours. Last night, the Harris telephone poll has Bush:Kerry:Nader 49:45:2 Now it is only 49:48:2.
Their state results, at least in FL and OH, are simply not worth considering. Their national poll is a little more interesting, but nothing to be concerned about as every other poll (even Harris's own phone poll) show strong trends toward the president.
I hope they are wrong. All the other news being reported out there from FR members is good, with turnout very heavy in GOP areas.
Final Polls for Election 2000
The final 2000 results were: Gore 48.38%, Bush 47.87%, Nader 2.74% |
i'll take 49-48 bush victory. rather have bush up than skerry.
that is based on their online poll... the telephone poll has Bush slightly ahead...
That kind of movement is within the margin of error. You can't determine anything from only two polls that are so similar. If anything, one can assume Kerry is more likely somewhere around 46% or 47% by this poll's methodology. The question of course is whether or not their methodology is accurate for the year 2004.
This was posted yesterday... Three times... old data.
LLS
Here's a curious fact.
I'm on both the Harris poll and Zogby poll. Of course, I've been regularly answering the questions in favor of Bush.
Strangely, I haven't received a poll request for the past two weeks.
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