A couple of observations. First, the early crowd at my precinct was predominantly Republican, in a community of 45,000 that is 75% white, and 25% African-American. Most of the people in line at 0630 were about my age (mid-40s), with very few senior citizens. About 10% of the voters were African-American, and half of them work at Wright-Patterson AFB. I'm sure many of them punched the ballot for Kerry, but there were some Bush supporters as well.
Additionally, the Dims vaunted "get out the vote effort" appeared to be in low gear early this morning. I only spotted a couple of first-time voters; both of them were with parents or other family members. Looks like members of the Michael Moore slacker brigade were sleeping in this morning.
Ohio will be tight, but I'm encouraged by what I saw this morning. The GOP base is definitely energized, as evidenced by the high turnout in GOP suburbs and rural areas. BTW, I drove by my polling place on my way home for lunch; it looks like turnout is holding steady (or even dropping a bit) through mid-day. And, at least in my middle-class neighborhood (home to a lot of UAW members), I'm not seeing any signs of the Democratic ground game....
I just got back from voting...far north side of Phoenix, AZ, quiet residential area...voting in a park community center. At about 10:30 am, there wasn't any line, and voting was quick and easy. No obvious tendencies one way or the other from the people I observed. The ballot was lengthy, but due mainly to some large number of judgeships. (As in, "Should Mary Veeblefetzer be retained as Judge of the First Appellate Court? Yes/No.") But I made my choice for GWB on the Presidential line and that was the important thing.
The only hitch was that the signs pointing to the polling place were a bit ambiguous and I first found myself trying to vote at a sign-up table for a Senior Lunch. What bothers me is that the nice old lady at the table didn't conclude from my appearance that I was a little young for the occasion, and I nearly got lunch out of this... Time to break out the Grecian Formula!