Is Columbus a Republican or democrat area?
Franklin County was carried by Gore in 2000. But, not by a huge margin
Heavy democrat...let it rain.
Not sure it matters much. The Demonrats have gotten many of their zombies to vote early. Besides, weather is not much of a factor inside prisons or 6' underground in graveyards, where many of their voters live. Furthermore, their big weapons, the lawyers, will be indoors all day filing suits.
Columbus went for Gore last time (lots of Gov't employees in Franklin county) but those visits from the governator should help push it towards Bush.
Weather Impact on Presidential Elections
Political scientists and even the average voter have speculated that weather can influence voter turnout by making people less willing to brave foul weather to go to the polls. (“It's too cold and this rain is terrible. Does my vote really matter that much to make it worth it?”) There is an old saying in New York that a rainy day is good news for the Democratic candidate because Republicans in rural upstate New York would not brave the elements, whereas the Democratic supporters in the urban areas would be less inconvenienced to vote ( Source : The Weather Factor , David Ludlum, p. 102.).
Voter turnout is a key focus of all political campaigns, with campaign managers frequently citing that low voter turnout in key areas of support for their candidate is a missed opportunity of sorts to gain valuable votes in all races, but especially in close races.
With the 2004 presidential election resembling a neck-and-neck horse race down to the wire, any factor that could impact voter turnout or sway voters to one candidate or another is especially interesting. There is ample evidence to support the role of weather influencing voter turnout in previous elections.
Historical Cases
In his book The Weather Factor , David Ludlum cites nine elections from 1840 to 1976 as having a weather influence. Of them, six involved weather conditions being favorable in Northeastern states (especially New York ) to the point where had foul weather occurred in those key states, the election outcome may have been changed. This includes the 1976 election, when Jimmy Carter defeated Gerald Ford by 54 electoral votes. Weather was mild in Ohio and Hawaii , two states where the election was very close. Had turnout been reduced because of adverse weather, the results of the election may have been different.
There are 3 other cases Ludlum cites where foul weather played a role, most notably 1916 (according to Ludlum) when Woodrow Wilson defeated Charles Evan Hughes, in part due to a very narrow victory in California . In the morning, a winter storm had dumped over a foot of snow in the mountainous areas of northeastern California , where Democratic support was strong. Had the storm lasted longer, Wilson may have received fewer votes from his supporters there, and the election could have changed.
Forecast
Ohio
Statewide voter turnout in Ohio was down in 2000 (62% of registered voters) compared to 1996 (66%) and 1992 (76%), with some light rain scattered across the state. Other factors likely came into play here with the weather, though, as the rain was not that heavy, and the counties that saw rain did not see voter turnout decrease more than counties with no rain.
(snip)
EXPECTED VOTER TURNOUT: Moderately Affected
NOTE: Follow the link for more state forcasts.
http://www.us.weathernews.com/weathertovote/