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To: Tumbleweed_Connection
With a drop in the futures contracts by such an amount, it does appear the futures could have been manipulated by a 'short squeeze.' It's certainly not an uncommon event and occurs on our exchanges more than one would like to think. It's generally accomplished by a group of traders, a house and/or marketmakers tacitly in cahoots, artificially inflating demand for contracts or issue(s), then selling the contracts/issue(s) short on the downside. Soro's is an expert on the currency markets in such tactics.

The problem, as with the embargo's and manipulation of supply by OPEC, the tactic has a very nasty backlash. When the price's were as high as they were, owners of non-affected contracts ie, those they've take possession of or holders of large inventories, will reissue and sell new contracts - a short - not buying at the higher price. Production facilities themselves, will look to alternative sources, tailor production for decreased inventory stocks and/or switch to product streams. The oil producer is then hurt by lack of demand and drastically falling revenues.

Those worst hurt by such tactics are those whose inventories are run on a mostly JIT, 'just-in-time', principles, those with small inventories and those unable to switch product streams, 3rd world developing countries.

Another vote by our Euro and Arabian islamofascists? It wouldn't surprise me, it certainly wouldn't be the first occurrence. But as those that were up-to-no-good later found out the consequences were like Russian roulette, the game where you merrily say, 'Shoot Yourself.'
28 posted on 11/01/2004 11:34:06 AM PST by claudwitz
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To: claudwitz
With a drop in the futures contracts by such an amount, it does appear the futures could have been manipulated by a 'short squeeze.

A short squeeze occurs when those who have sold short are forced to BUY in order to cut their losses, thus driving prices higher, which makes their losses larger, which causes more buying - see the viscious circle? - until the "buying to cover shorts" is exhausted. Shrewd squeezers start this process by aggressive and targeted "buying attacks" on securities or commodities that are heavy large short positions.

At the point that the short covering is exhausted (shorts have covered all positions) , the shrewd squeezer would sell the "attack" positions <|;.

Think of a short squeeze as a margin call in a RISING market, the opposite of a margin call in a declining market.

If you are suggesting that short covering was exhausted today and shrewd squeezers are now selling, then you are very insightful.

29 posted on 11/01/2004 2:30:34 PM PST by 1stMarylandRegiment (Conserve Liberty)
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