Posted on 10/31/2004 5:11:07 PM PST by VAGOP
No, sorry.
No, but they reported internal party percentage support of Bush vs. Kerry as:
Republicans 89 vs. 9 Democrats 11 vs. 85 Independents 42 vs. 47 (with 5 going to Nader)
While Gallup is supposed to be the gold standard of national polling, does anyone have a feel for how they compare to Mason-Dixon for state polling? The last Mason-Dixon battleground state polls looked a lot better for the good guys (at least OH and FL looked better).
And, yes, I totally agree that weekend polls are worthless.
Everybody jumped Alan Keyes' case when he said we should ban polls 45 days before an election. As each day passes, he makes a lot more sense on that particular issue. With so many polls, the value of them is negligible.
Thanks.
So why on earth do they have 49-49 as their final tally on their website.
Now even Gallup is cheating/injecting non-scientific skewing?!
susan estrich is more masculine than aaron brown
Exactly!
Absurd reasoning!
Bush is ahead and will win easily.
Undecideds will cut for the President.
Well .. because weekend polls are notariously bad for repubs .. please take this with a grain of salt.
And .. as others have noted .. this poll was reached with a 4% OVER SAMPLING OF DEMOCRATS.
I still maintain .. the MSM is lying in an attempt to influence the repubs into thinking it's hopeless .. Bush can't win .. etc.
REMEMBER THIS .. NO MATTER WHAT YOU HEAR OR SEE OR READ .. DON'T PAY ANY ATTENTION TO ANY OF IT .. JUST VOTE!!
If the Undecided breaks for Bush en masse, then it will be Bush 51 Kerry 47
Excellent observation!!!
In 2000 President Bush was ahead over Gore by 12 points among men, however Gore was ahead of President Bush by 12 points among women and the result was a tie in popular vote.
In this Gallup poll President Bush is ahead by 14 points among men, but Kerry is only ahead by 6 points among women.
You are absolutely correct this should be at least 5% point for President Bush in this poll if men and women were equal or even with slightly more women. This clearly tell us that Gallup has oversampled women by 8 to 10 points in their latest poll.
Gallop stuck in the 2% undecided to get it 49-49, a ridiclous view that Kerry will get all the undecided vote.
MSM trying to rattle President Bush base."
MSM trying to rally Kerry voters into thinking they
IT ALL COMES DOWN TO TURNOUT!!!!
MAKE GOTV CALLS! IF WE GET 100% TURNOUT FROM THE STRONG BUSH SUPPORTERS, IT WOULD BE A LANDSLIDE!!!
Bush has 39% strong support,
Kerry has 32% strong support.
FROM PEW RESEARCH POLL:
As in previous polls, Bush's supporters are much more enthusiastic than those backing Kerry. In fact, Bush registers a higher percentage of strong supporters in the final weekend of the campaign than any candidate since former President Ronald Reagan in 1984. Fully 39% of likely voters support Bush strongly, while 9% back him only moderately. Roughly three-in-ten likely voters say they support Kerry strongly (32%), and 13% back him moderately, a pattern more typical of recent presidential candidates.
That is probability of winning ie Bush has 55% probability of winning.
Also, Gallop has Bush winning the South by only 6 pts. and I know that's absolutely ridiculous. Bush has the south by 15 points.
For the presidency, the undecideds break for the INCUMBENT, not the CHALLENGER. I've seen this myth has been put out there as fact, but there was a chart on this site a few days ago that PROVED that according to history, undecideds break for the INCUMBENT.
Agreed.
Ah, but the trick is - did they oversample Dems tonight of undersample them last week?
I *still* think Bush will win by 8 points - It's a leap of faith now, not a fact-based conclusion.
WE JUST NEED EVERY REPUBLICAN TO SHOW UP AT THE POLLS
4 MORE YEARS, 4 MORE YEARS, 4 MORE YEARS
During war, no incumbent president has ever lost a reelection bid.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.