Funny how states evolve, sometimes in opposite directions. Minnesota used to be as Democratic as Rhode Island. Illinois leaned strong Republican. Go back far enough (the 1880's ) and Massachussetts was bedrock GOP.
Mass. and Ill. used to be Republican when Republicans were the more liberal. MN used to be really Democratic when Democrats were more conservative.
As the roles of the parties switched, so did the partisan allegiances of states. Witness the turnaround of the Solid South, for example.
I think, as the Democratic party moves further and further left, we'll see some moderate-conservative states, like Minnesota and the Rust Belt states, moving into the Republican camp...
About the wrong track numbers, if Bush wins with a comfortable lead or better, I'll be willing to say the country is on the right track; at least temporarily. LOL