Dow Says Kerry

CNN/Money ^ | October 29, 2004 | Jacqueline S. Gold

[Bonaventure]

I don't understand this. If all Bush has to do it manage better than a 0.5% decline, then doesn't the Dow have to rise only a few points to make him the favorite under this bizarre analysis? Where does this 10,412.92 number come from?

[thoughtomator]

The chicken bones in my last night's dinner say Nader... go figure.

[RockinRight]

True enough. However, there are also several other indicators that supposedly "guarantee" Bush will be re-elected, based on historical precedent.

[blakep]

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

They're desperate!!

[liberty_lvr]

Well, crap.

That's it, I'm done...Bush is now OBVIOUSLY going to lose so I don't think I'll even bother to go out and vote.

NOT. Geez, get a life...

[sarasota]

Historical doesn't cut it after 9.11. Hysterical would be more appropriate.

[Michael.SF.]

And no team in the history of baseball has overcome a 3-0 deficit to then go on and win a seven game series in post season play.

until 2004!

[DJ MacWoW]

The chicken bones in my last night's dinner say Nader... go figure.

My tea leaves trump your chicken bones and say it's Mickey Mouse by an ear!

[xJones]

CNN says Dow says Kerry wins. CNN will probably bring in fortune 500 tellers on Monday night swearing that Kerry will win.

[AlienCrossfirePlayer]

This kind of prediction works very well until it stops working. Don't worry about it.

[Numbers Guy]

Somebody's struggling with math at CNN.

0.5% on a Dow hovering around 10,000 is 50 points.

If the Dow is down 0.75% since the end of September, that's 75 points. For it to only be down 0.50% by election day means it has to go up 25 points.

The Dow was at 10,080 at the end of September. To be down 0.5% by election day it would have to be at 10,030. If it's at 10,005, I think it's quite possible that it just might struggle up by 25 points in the next two trading days.

Some Kerry supporter at CNN can't do math.

[Paradox]

You are right, at first glance, that math doesnt seem to add up...

[Galtoid]

I guess these "experts" have also forgotten that sitting senators DO NOT GET ELECTED president.
Rarely, if ever . . .

[funkywbr]

We never had the damn market manipulated by DEM Billionaires before!

Go to NEWSMAX and do a search and you'll find out that a group of Dem Billionaires met on how to BRING DOWN Pesident Bush!

[spodefly]

[Rutles4Ever]

This predictor has been true without exception every four years

That kinda breaks the theory, doesn't it?

[Izzy Dunne]

On September 30th, the Dow closed at 10,080.27. It closed Thursday at 10,004.54. For President Bush to win re-election, the Dow would have to reach 10,412.92.

10,080.27 * 0.995 = 10029.86

[Bonaventure]

These indicators are ridiculous, of course. But if CNN is going to use them, it should use them properly.

If the incumbent wins provided the Dow drops no more than 0.5% from September 30 to election day, and if the Dow stood at 10,080.27 on September 30, then isn't Bush in the clear as long as the Dow closes above 10,029.87 on Monday?

[Rutles4Ever]

Woops - I read that wrong. I thought it was true with the exception of four years...

[mlocher]

i guess we should just cancel the election on tuesday, saving the gov't lots of money and simply crown kerry as emperor