bump
This is why HI matters this time....if the polls are as close as they say (probably they won't be this close, but who knows), even 4 electoral votes could swing it either to Kerry or Bush.
http://msnbc.msn.com/id/6028629/?ta=y
Played around with this (go to electoral map and click the pick 'em tab at the top of the map).
Bush could lose Oregon, MN, IA, MI, Ohio, Pa, and ME and still win if he gets Florida, WI, NM, AZ (which went for him in 2000 so should again), MO, WV and either HI or NH.
Without at least HI or NH, Kerry would get a bare electoral win.
On the other hand, Kerry can't win even if he wins all MW states ***excluding Ohio***, HI, NM, and NH. A Kerry win is virtually impossible without Ohio and PA both, provided FL stays Bush and reports indicate it is more for Bush than OH is.
(Though Dems seem rather excited about their poll turnout, which is a bit scary).