Stratfor has always been a doom and gloom source of negativism. It must be staffed by former Clinton appointees to the CIA and State.
In Lebanaon you had the following groups, geographically dispersed throught the country and all trying to kill one another at various times:
Sunni Arabs
Shiite Arabs
Druze Arabs
Maronite Christians
Palestinians
The notion that Iraq is as Balkanized as Lebanon when almost all of the Shiites (60% of the population) and all of the Kurds support the movement towards elections is ludicrous
What you have is a Sunni Arab minority attempting to reimpose a Sunni-fascist state on the majority.