Russia Denies Involvement in Iraq Weapons

MOSCOW - Russia angrily denied allegations Thursday that Russian forces had smuggled a cache of high explosives out of Iraq (news - web sites) prior to the U.S. invasion in March 2003.

Defense Ministry spokesman Vyacheslav Sedov dismissed the allegations as "absurd" and "ridiculous."

"I can state officially that the Russian Defense Ministry and its structures couldn't have been involved in the disappearance of the explosives, because all Russian military experts left Iraq when the international sanctions were introduced during the 1991 Gulf War (news - web sites)," he told The Associated Press.

The denial followed a story in The Washington Times on Thursday that quoted a high-ranking U.S. defense official alleging that Russian special forces had "almost certainly" helped spirit out the hundreds of tons of high explosives that went missing from the al-Qaqaa base. The newspaper based its report on an interview with John Shaw, the deputy U.S. undersecretary of defense for international technology security.

Two weeks ago, Iraqi officials told the U.N. International Atomic Energy Agency that 377 tons of explosives had vanished as a result of "theft and looting ... due to lack of security." The compounds, HMX and RDX, are key components in plastic explosives, which insurgents in Iraq have used in bomb attacks.

"I didn't hear about any weapons to be taken out," Interfax quoted him as saying. "Moreover, there was nobody to take them out, because we actually evacuated all of our personnel."

He said there had been no Russian special forces in Iraq, only civilian specialists working for foreign firms.

A few things I excerpted from Bodansky's initial "Rise of the Trans-Asian Axis" paper:

* Iran's Ahmad Khomeini emphasised the fatefulness and uncompromising character of the inevitable struggle with the US: "We should realise that the world is hostile toward us only for ?our commitment to| Islam. After the fall of Marxism, Islam replaced it, and as long as Islam exists, US hostility exists, and as long as US hostility exists, the struggle exists." These principles determine the current strategy of Iran.

* It was in the context of this world view, that Tehran and its allies moved to significantly intensify their cooperation with the PRC. The Chinese strategic cooperation with both Iran and Pakistan intensified in the wake of the visit by PRC President Yang Shangkun in the Fall of 1991. In this visit, Beijing introduced this new grand strategy to its most important allies and won its commitment to close cooperation.

* Pakistani and Iranian officials stressed at the time that the tripartite agreement would remain clandestine: "These three nations will not sign a treaty officially, but in the event of foreign aggression against the one of these nations, the other two will treat the aggression as aggression against itself and will rise to its defence."

* By mid-1992, there was a clear globalisation of the strategic thinking of the leaders of the Islamic bloc. Tehran and its allies are genuinely convinced that they are already in the midst of a global confrontation with the US in which no compromise is possible. Reflecting Iran's perceptions, Syria argued in June 1992 that "World War III began with the Malta summit and has not yet ended. Civil, ethnic, and border wars are the bullets" of the war for US global hegemony.

* Meanwhile, the PRC High Command was studying the military aspects of the implementation of the strategic surge. The conclusions were presented in a June 1993 textbook of the PLA High Command called "Can the Chinese Army Win the Next War?".

* Seeking to avoid a direct military confrontation with the US, the PRC High Command identifies in "Can the Chinese Army Win the Next War?", eight scenarios in which Beijing goes to war against the US in the near future to defend its vital interests. The optimal points of military clash with the US are at the extreme fringes of the Trans Asian Axis -- Korea in the east and the Middle East in the west --where Beijing's close allies (North Korea and Iran-Syria respectively) are willing to take on the US and its regional close allies on their own.

* Moreover, according to "Can the Chinese Army Win the Next War?", the PLA considers India "the greatest potential threat" to the PRC, because the implementation of the PRC's Trans-Asian Axis strategy endangers India's vital interests and thus might very well lead to a military clash. The PLA stresses that they "see India as a potential adversary mainly because India's strategic focus remains on the Indian Ocean and Southeast Asia".

* Therefore, it is imperative for Beijing to divert India's stretegic attention away from the Chinese strategic surge from the east, both on land and in the ocean. This strategic diversion is the role of Islamabad. Pakistan is thus instigating a major defence challenge to India from the west, ranging from subversion to a major military build-up. The aggregate effect of the Pakistani strategy should be a growing tension along the Indo-Pak border that would compel New Delhi to neglect blocking the PRC's surge until it is too late to reverse the new geo-strategic realities in Asia.

* Meanwhile, Islamabad has become a critical linchpin of the Axis: the physical link between the PRC and Iran. Pakistan's role has become more active since the return to power of Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto. Prime Minister Bhutto's Islamabad considers the opening of the road to Central Asia by using Pakistan as the region's gateway to the Indian Ocean to be the key to the growth of Pakistan's commercial activities.

* Iran began to actively urge for a Beijing-Tehran axis aimed at confronting the US and reducing its influence in the region. Toward this end, Tehran began floating in early March 1994 the idea of an all-Asian anti-US alliance centred on Iran, Pakistan, India and the PRC. The declared objective of this alliance was to counter "US hegemony over the world". The offer was a trap for India: an instrument of providing the proof that the essence of New Delhi's approach to relations with the West, mainly the US, was taking side against the Third World.

* "The history of cooperation and friendship between Pakistan and China is enviable. The PRC has now offered to cooperate liberally with Pakistan to meet its weaponry needs. Pakistani tanks and missiles are also being manufactured in China. China did not even care for the US pressure in this regard. No-one will object to China's inclusion in the alliance of Muslim countries as China has not been seen to carry out aggression against any neighbouring country, nor has it claimed the territory of its neighbours."

* Beijing shares Tehran's vision fully. Just how crucial the new Silk Road is to the PRC and its allies, primarily Iran and Pakistan, was recently clarified. In mid-April 1994, Premier Li Peng led the largest and most important Chinese delegation to have visited Central Asia on a 12 day tour in Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kirgistan, and Kazakhstan.

* !!!!!! A critical question yet to be resolved is the role of Russia. Moscow has always considered "the Orient" as its primary zone of hegemony, and the drive South as its manifest destiny. Russia is working hard on the reintegration of the former Soviet Union, including Central Asia, while anticipating friction (at the very least) with the West. Moscow has no problems with the rise of China, as the myriad of recent and currently military deals demonstrate, as long as it does not interfere with the revival of Russia as a global superpower. The major question is the Islamists' reaction to the revival of Russian (neo-Soviet) hegemony in Central and South Asia. Moscow is convinced it can establish a strategic condominium with Beijing. Beijing is not hostile to such an eventually, especially once the Russophiles assume power in Moscow. In that case, Tehran and the Islamic bloc will have to cope with the new reality along the Trans-Asian Axis. !!!!!!!

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