...at least for the next 4 years
Good point.
But I'm also concerned the media will play up this explosives story to take a point or two from Bush, which is all Kerry needs.
I don't see it happening. At this point, just about everyone has decided. If you take all of the polls together and average them, it is clear that Kerry is hitting a ceiling at about 46-47%. Not coincidentally, the percentage of people who disapprove of Bush's job performance is 47%, according to RCP. Bush's floor is around 48% -- about two or three points (depending upon the poll) below his job approval rating (and likely total on election day).
I have been saying for months now that if you really want to know what will happen on Election day, compare the percentage of people who approve of Bush's job performance with the percentage of people who don't. These numbers will give you the single best historical predictor of the outcome. For this reason, I actually think the race is closer to where Gallup has it: 51-46% for President Bush, with 51% job approval. I actually think he will do slightly better than 51%.
Meanwhile, I suspect -- don't know for a fact, but suspect -- that you will like this poll a bit better starting tomorrow and especially Thursday.
...at least for the next 4 years