Posted on 10/26/2004 2:04:15 PM PDT by StopDemocratsDotCom
He didn't. He has maintained a consistent lead of about two to three points (closer to three points) nationally since the end of the debates. What you are seeing in this poll is the inevitable statistical noise of a tracking poll.
can't understand why anyone even frets over these polls.
---
Its called a long campaign season and understanding the impact on this nation if an antiamerican socialist gets elected.
The Washington Post tracking poll will be conducted daily until Election Day. The latest tracking result represents the four-night average of data collected by telephone Oct 22 - 25 among a randomly selected national sample of 2,414 adults, including 2,084 self-identified registered voters and 1,666 likely voters. The Post and ABC News collect data jointly but are responsible for developing their own methods to identify likely voters. This may produce slightly different estimates of candidate support. The margin of sampling error for results based on these three groups is plus or minus 3 percentage points, and slightly larger for subsamples. Sampling error is only one of many potential sources of error in this or any other public opinion poll. Interviewing was conducted by TNS of Horsham, Pa
For what it's worth, I don't buy into the weekend theory either, at least not based on the explanation that Republicans are more likely to be out of the house than Democrats. I hear this claim all the time, but I am not sure that I have seen any hard empirical evidence to support it. Indeed, Time and Gallup often poll partially over weekends, yet they seem to have no problem finding Republicans willing to talk to them.
Wait a minute. Look at the numbers here from the last three days.
Net Leaned Vote, Likely Voters:
Other Neither Would No
Bush Kerry Nader (vol.) (vol.) not vote op.
10/25/04 48 50 1 * * 0 1
10/24/04 48 49 1 * 1 0 1
10/23/04 49 48 1 * 1 * 2
The numbers are
Bush 49 48 48
Kerry 48 49 50
If my math is good that is Bush 49 + 48 + 48 = 145 devided by 3 = 48.3
Kerry 48 + 49 + 50 = 147 devided by 3 = 49
So it should be Bush 48.3 Kerry 49
So is my math wrong or did they round a whole number up for Kerry?
You took my words out of context. I am complaining that the happiness or despondency of many on this board is dependent upon the reported sentiments of a handful of people. We look upon the reports of the MSM with suspicion, and yet accept their polls with unquestioning resignation. The only solution is to have faith in the American people, that we will rise to the challenge history has given us.
Jim at Kerry Spot had a interesting interview with a guy who has been in a lot of campaigns more years than Jim's been living and he told him that probably Kerry would get a second look this weekend and than through the week Bush would get them back...he said to watch Ohio as they were seeing a coming home movement in their internals as I think Rasmussen is now picking up. Florida is I hope at least 1/2 of what Gallop said and is strong because we like Jeb alot and his performance during the hurricane was superb....so tomorrow we should see a little light with Ras. and with the WP/ABC poll and remember the Tipp poll is really a good poll historically as in 2000. I just want us to win Florida and Ohio and its a done deal and I would rather be Bush than Kerry at this point.
Bush won the Monday sample in every tracking poll released today.
ABC News has admitted that Bush won the sample for today. Here is the link:
http://www.abcnews.go.com/Politics/story?id=199229&page=1
Bush polls badly on Saturdays and Sundays. These weekend samples will roll off the poll tomorrow, and Thursday.
Bush will have the lead in this poll by Friday. Its inevitable.
This tracking poll is based on a rolling three-day sample. About 350 likely voters are polled each day. To update the numbers, a new day's sample of respondents is added to the total sample and the oldest day's sample of respondents is dropped out. The Post uses seven variables to define likely voters, including whether the respondent states they are registered to vote, their intention to vote, past voting history, interest in the presidential campaign, age, whether the respondent is voting for the first time in 2004 and whether the voter knows the location of his or her polling place. These variables produce a sample of likely voters that is largely composed of individuals who regularly vote in presidential elections but does include newly registered as well as other first time voters. In a typical sample, about one in 10 likely voters are self-described first-time voters and one in six are between the ages of 18-29.
The Post adjusts, or "weights," each day's randomly selected samples of adults to match the voting-age population percentages by age, sex, race, and education, as reported by the Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey. The Post also adjusts the percentages of self-identified Democrats and Republicans by partially weighting to bring the percentages of those groups to within three percentage points of their proportion of the electorate, as measured by national exit polls of voters in the last three presidential elections.
sorry.. I think you took my post wrong. I am just really, really exhausted of all this. Did not mean anything ill toward you. :)
Take it easy.
i think the numbers they list on their poll tracking is the average of 4 days that they report on that day. Thus, the actual raw data is unavailable.
LOL! You nailed it perfectly. I refuse to believe there are people really changing their minds right now. I seriously don't know of a single person who is voting and is not yet sold on their candidate.
And among all likely voters, including those waiting for Election Day, the race is essentially tied: Forty-nine percent support Kerry and 48 percent Bush, with 1 percent for Ralph Nader in interviews Friday through Monday.
That's the same as Monday's tracking result. The race tightened slightly from last week because Saturday and Sunday were two of Kerry's three best days since this tracking poll began Oct. 1; Monday, though, was a bit better for Bush. Tracking polls average results across days to build a reliable sample
This is from:
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/story?id=199229&page=1
The RCP Average uses the WAPO numbers if they differ from ABC's.
I don't know squat about polling. Who are the standard bearer polls?
You think Bush polled well Sunday and Monday? I am not very good at being able to tell what is going on with these tracking polls. I can tell you this much. If Kerry were up 2 nationally, he wouldn't be acting like the one behind right now. I would be shocked if either one of the campaigns was paying attention to this poll.
on Oct 12 which was also a Tuesday Bush was 48 and Kerry 49...5 days later it was Bush 50 Kerry 46...so this is just a weekend poll and it will level out...look at the other polls and you will see Bush is stronger than he was ... Ras has Bush tied today and yet has Ohio +4...
All you people are going to drive yourselves bonkers with all these endless polls.
Bonkers happened about a month ago.
All you people are going to drive yourselves bonkers with all these endless polls.
---
been there, doing that. Nov 3 cant come fast enough. :)
"really, really exhausted of all this"
I know what you mean. I won't know what to do after the election, since I seem to have been monomaniacal these past few months. But we can smile knowing our efforts contribute to the W triumph.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.