Posted on 10/21/2004 1:28:02 PM PDT by TBBT
I thought for a second (a microsecond, really) that the reference would pass by without notice.
Thanks for having my back.
That would go against history if it did happen that way.
He is always so pompous and depressing. What did Sean Hannity say to those comments, anyway? Did he agree?
Thanks for posting this info. Where did this myth start about the undecideds breaking for the challenger?
Yea, and they said Boston wouldn't win! BTW...what did Will say about the playoffs?
And the last one, too. There aren't many 'undecideds' left, and most of those won't even vote. More shallow election analysis from people who should keep quiet. With Bush bumping up against the magic number of 50 (really 49 with 3rd parties), 'undecideds' matter less and less each day.
The only thing good about George Will are his initials.
I'm with you. Relatively close, but not the razor-thin stuff of Election 2000.
"There aren't many 'undecideds' left, and most of those won't even vote. "
This is true. And the reason they wont vote is that at heart, they are either perfectionists who dont like either candidate, or people who dont have much interest in other than the soaps, Oprah, food, and the football game on TV.
Now there are some folks who think Bush is a decent man, but dont necessarily agree with his policies. I believe that these are the folks that have been measured over the last few months as undecideds, but have most likely moved to Bush. At this point, they have disagreements with Bush...but just dont like or trust Kerry on a PERSONAL level. And I think all of the poll internals on leadership and trust bear this out.
Undecideds usually go for the challenger in Congressional races... Not always... undecideds often went for incumbents in 2002.
What these pundits have failed to realize is the cong. race axiom hasn't applied to Pres elections..
"...the President has a 4 - 5 point lead. That's not really a dead heat."
Right. I also read somewhere, maybe here, probably here, some old election hand say he always adds 4 pts. to the republican and subtracts 2 from the dem, to account for bias. I don't know if this is relevent, but Kerry has not had a lead in most polls for over a month now.
I don't want to get too optimistic, but I don't want to be as pessimistic as Will, either.
If one is undecided at this point they ought to take a vacation during election week. They are suffering from a lack of ambition, ability to read and absorb anything and fall into the category of a listless human being.
That is a good point, and it ought to be magnified this year, considering both the effects of 9/11 and the incredible pop status that Bush-hating has attained.
The election rule of thumb is that if an incumbant doesn't have 50% in the polls a week out from election, he won't ever get to 51% and will lose.
Presidential elections don't generally work this way though. The candidate with the more positive message is usually the one the race breaks towards. Most often, it is the incumbant saying "we are on the right course", and the challenger saying "everything is screwed up".
Reagan v Carter was an exception where Reagan was telling us how great America is, while Carter was blathering about our need to be humble.
This election, Kerry is telling us how screwed up we are and need to obey the UN, while Bush is stroking the flames of patriotism.
It will be an historic event if this election breaks towards the grim reaper. Explainable only by an unpredictable level of vote fraud.
Between the normal democratic voter fraud/intimidation--the possibility/probably of the undecideds breaking to Kerry--and Eliot Spitzer's efforts to drive the stock market down by attacking the insurance/health insurance/financial stocks the last two weeks before the election--the President needs at least a 5% margin.
P.S. Spitzer is doing a good job for Kerry as his efforts have DECIMATED quality companies in those industries in last few days--helping to seriously drive down the value of people's IRA's and mutual funds. Many, many QUALITY blue-chip companies have lost by over $100 billion of market cap in the last few days thanks to Spitzer's efforts--who by the way will be campaigning with Kerry in Florida next week for the Jewish vote.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.