Bush's support is much stronger than Kerry. (about +10%, and Kerry's is getting softer with each new poll) This is a major indicator of turnout. I do believe the the republican GOTV efforts will be amazing this year. And it will be needed to offset what looks like some democratic shenanigans at the polls. Most polls are at about 65% that people think Bush will win regardless of who THEY are voting for. (About in line with Tradesports and IEM.)
Look at the underlying poll numbers. Bush is doing better with almost every group compared to 2000. There was a poll out today by a group that nailed the minority numbers in 2000. They are showing Bush getting double (18%) what he got in 2000. This is in line with several other polls that show Bush getting 15-25% of the African American vote.
Look at where Bush and Kerry are campaigning 2 weeks out. Bush is in NJ on Monday. Kerry is in PA today. Most of the rest of the week, Kerry is in states Gore won in 2000. So why are they doing this? To believe Kerry is winning, you have to believe this. #1 that Bush is loosing and Bush's internal polls are wrong. You also have to believe that Kerry is winning, but he doesn't know it. Sound reasonable to you?
Look at the campaign topics. Bush has pretty much stayed on message the entire campaign. He has been consistent in his proposals and his views. What was Kerry going to focus on until Nov 2nd? Iraq is what we heard 2 weeks ago. But wait, what is he focusing on this week? Scaring seniors on Social Security and young folks with the draft. Looks like Kerry is throwing everything out there, hoping some issue will resonante at the last moment.
Now for the states. OH seems to be the most worrysome right now, and possibly NH. Polls in OH seem to be all over. Brit on Fox tonight said their 5 point OH lead for Bush is in line with several "private" polls. I suspect he meant the campaigns. I think Bush will do better than most of the current polls in OH are showing. One main reason will be the marriage amendment. Most polls (ABC excluded) show it winning with around 60-70%. I think it will win by even more considering what we have seen in other states this year. If 70% of the voters vote for the marriage amendment, what % of that group do you think Bush will get? I'd say 80% at least.
I personally think FL is basically locked up for Bush. Most reputable polls have show a consistent 3-5 point lead there for Bush. Bush will do better in 2004 than he did in 2000. Lieberman is not on the ticket, and the networks won't call it early this year. Jeb didn't far better in the election in 2002 than the polls showed. He is better liked. And Bush got a lot of positives from his efforts during the hurricanes. My guess is Bush wins FL by 6%, although the networks won't call FL until very late.
Bush may loose NH. However, he has a very good chance of picking up IA, WI, NM, and maybe even PA. Bush may loose, but he has a lot more room for error than Kerry does.
I still think there is a potential October surprise for Kerry. However, Bush and Rove may not use it unless it really tightens in the next 2 weeks. Bush held off on attacking Kerry as a liberal until the last couple of weeks. I suspect that is a major factor in how Bush is extending his lead over the last 5-7 days. Again, some of the polls aren't what we'd like to see, and only time will tell who is right. But just look at the Bush trend over the last 7 days. Last week before debate #3, he was tied to up 1-2 in most polls. This week, he is back to 5-7 in the nationals. You cannot win nationally by 5-7% and loose the electoral college counts. Newt Gingrich pretty much predicted this last Thursday after the last debate. He said within a week, Bush would be back to his pre-debate lead. (of 5-7%) It would settle there for a few days, and then Bush would widen the lead over the last 5 days. Newt's a republican, but he has been a pretty reliable predictor of races over the years.
So that's my reasoning. Most of it has been posted here in some form or another by myself and others. Some much more eloquently than I. Although I worry, let me ask you all one question........ Who here that is supporting Bush would be willing to "flip" all the poll numbers right now? What do you think Kerry and Bush would say to that question? SO, I think Bush wins relatively easy on Nov 2nd (or 3rd). Thanks for letting me share this vanity. I think it may be my first in the 4+ years of posting on FR.
You might want to check the use of the word loose in your article and replace it with the word lose.
You did it over and over so you might want to check your dictionary.
I think October surprises are inevitable. I just hope that none of them come from the terrorists.
It looks like the one for Kerry will have to do with his discharge from the Navy.
I haven't heard anything about what the Dems might have to use against Bush, but I'm pretty sure they'll make up something if they have to.
Where will NH go if it gets loose?????
My case can be summed up in fewer words:
Kerry is an idiotic buffoon that flips back and forth on every issue, documented to have engaged in anti-American activities, with a complete non-record as a Senator.
As stupid as the American public has proven itself to be in the past (voting in Clinton twice???) Kerry is so blatantaly incompetent that he has zero chance.
A great thing for Bush, because a more sleazy politician with an iota of charisma might have had a chance, between the economy and Iraq. It seems the Dims decided to throw this one away, as they know better than to trust one of their own to fight terror. No doubt they'll take 2008 seriously, after letting Bush do the hard work; Hitlery is drooling for a chance to let things slide again as things slid under her "husband."
I have been here three years and i still haven't created a profile. Maybe I should huh?
Eliot Spitzer's (hardcore democrat who has warned republicans against using 9/11 in the campaign, and also plans a campaign trip for Kerry in Florida next week) recent attack on the insurance, health insurance, and financial stocks has had a deleterious effect on stocks in those industries. Many quality stocks have been decimated in the last few days. I hate to say his timing is suspect--since I'm not one who buys into the 'conspiracy thing'. But with 10-year bond yields about to go under 4%--the markets, themselves, are saying that the economy is slowing down AGAIN.
Let's hope the markets turn--or at least stabilize--as we can't afford even a slight reduction in support for Bush from the huge 'investor class'--which now includes most in the middle class (via mutual funds, and 401k's)