Based on what?
Based on his popularity which is over 50%
Based on the unlikeablity of Kerry
Based on the fact that we are in a war time situation and no incumbent has ever lost a reelection bid
Based on the fact that Bush is holding his 2000 states while threatening Kerry's (Gore states)
Based on the fact that Kerry has nothing to offer except he is not Bush.
That is just some of the reasons.
Polls will now show Bush separating from Kerry, after the MSM had to pretend it was competitive for the debates.
Already Bush is cracking the 50% mark and will start going towards the 52% next week.