"I suspect that the shift of socially conservative Jews to Bush and Republicans had already occurred "
My sense is that there are more jewish voters than you would expect that will vote for bush. Traditional dem voters are quietly switching due to the administration's stance on israel. When ed koch endorses bush you know that something is strange is going on.
The polls don't show much movement in the jewish vote. I can see lots of reasons it should have moved, and I hope it would have, but no evidence yet.