I strongly suspect that in the last three weeks of the campaign, Kerry et. al. will, ironically enough, find themselves on the defensive on, of all things, domestic policy. I envision groups like the Club for Growth running ads threatening that a vote for Kerry is a vote for tax hikes, like the AMA running ads threatening that a vote for Kerry is a vote to strip the elderly of choice in medical care, like the energy companies running ads threatening a vote for Kerry is a vote for so-called 'envirnonmental policies' which will drive up oil costs and make us more dependent on Mid-east oil.
I'm not saying these are the exact ads which will air in battleground states, I'm just saying these are the types of ads we should expect to see.
I sort of war gamed this out with a friend last summer. Wait until the closing weeks of the campaign, keep the focus on foreign policy until then, and then unload on Kerry's Senate record in the final weeks as the undecideds are paying attention so that Kerry can't say, "Hey, that's old news."
Basically, the idea is to hit Kerry-Edwards from a variety of different directions, preempting their ability to develop a clear theme in the closing weeks. When I saw 'shock and awe' used recently, I thought this might be exactly what was coming. Now, with this launch against Edwards and the debates this last week, I'm almost sure of it. Look for Bush to win the third debate, hands down.
Do the Swiftvets have any more ammunition or have they just about done all the damage they can do?
I think thats part right, but I got a feeling there will be an "october surprise" involving Kerry's past.
You remember Bush's DWI coming out last year, I have a gut feeling there is something similiar in Kerry's past. Kerry never was (and still hasn't been)properly vetted by his staff. Generally, you do opposition research on your canidate to find absolutley everything, this way you can be nimble, disiplined, and know how to respond and get everything out early so not to do harm later.
Kerry's campaign hasn't done that, and can't (kerry apparently won't let them, which is why the SBV's were so devestating, and kerry's folks didn't know how to respond or what hit them). In Kerry's 20 years in the senate, and also as a prosecutor, luietant governor, there's got to be something being kept under wraps which will come out at the last moment to bury him.
This coupled with a barrage of ads defining kerry as the second coming of mondale, carter, and McGovern, will hurt not only kerry but depress part of his base and hurt other dems too.