Posted on 10/09/2004 7:32:34 AM PDT by MarlboroRed
There's no point in doing a little political punditry in the October of an election year without going way out on a limb, so here goes: As I smelled it, the most important thing that happened in the second presidential debate is that George W. Bush lost a good chunk of the women's vote.
He's been ahead, you know, among large blocs of women. If you take away black women, who appear to vote more based on their race than their sex (and thus vote heavily Democratic), Bush leads John Kerry among women. The media have made great hoo-ha lately about this fact, noting and arguing that Bush was gaining steadily and building a solid lead among the "security moms" because of his successful attacks (read: fear-mongering lies) on Kerry's ability to fight terrorism.
I'm guessing that Friday night, that trend started shifting into reverse. It wasn't any single thing Bush said. It was the manner: the schoolyard swagger, the left arm cocked like an itchy gunslinger's, the arrogant sneer, the roosterish strutting -- and the voice. God, that voice. You don't quite call that screaming. It wasn't exactly caterwauling. Maybe yowling. Whatever it was, he sounded like a tedious and noisome braggart in the parking lot after a football game. Having seen plenty of those, and having been that myself from time to time, experience teaches me to take the view that most women do not find that figure appealing.
They might have, if Kerry had come across, to extend the metaphor, as the inadequate sad sack portrayed in Bush's television commercials. But he didn't. Kerry was terrific. Far better, by my lights, than he was in the first debate. I know no one else will see it that way, because he was the first debate's obvious winner, while he merely edged out round two on points after Bush didn't show up in where-am-I-again? mode. But Kerry was, if anything, stronger -- more succinct and direct, more challenging to Bush, and tougher -- than he had been in the first debate. And he especially showed all those qualities when he was talking foreign policy. I'm betting the security moms noticed.
Of course, I'm guessing, and I have no actual idea whether I'm right. Certainly, this isn't the kind of angle that will have been discussed on the cable post-game shows. The few women permitted into the club are busy proving that they can be one of the guys (Andrea Mitchell) or that they can be just as sycophantic toward Bush as the big boys (Candy Crowley); they know that's the only way they can stay on television, so they sure aren't there to represent their sex.
It's very much worth remembering, in fact, how aggressively male a domain cable television is. The worst moment, when Bush just clearly behaved like a rude jerk, came at 9:36 p.m. Eastern Standard Time, when Charlie Gibson was trying to ask him a follow-up and Bush brusquely waved him off, interrupted, and charged forward and started yelping about Tony Blair. It was witnessing this moment that made me start to think about women viewers. But Chris Matthews, naturally, thought it was great. Which makes me think I'm on to something.
Polls won't deal with this question for a few days, and if they prove me wrong, they prove me wrong. But as hunches go, this strikes me as one worth playing.
Michael Tomasky is executive editor of The American Prospect.
This writer is a fool, well he's probably a liberal after all. This is just lib spin to cover up for the fact that Kerry got pounded last night. Women, in this election, want a strong leader who will keep the country safe. Kerry has never projected an image of strength during his entire political career. Oh, but he has a plan(s) for everything doesn't he? Of course he never provides the details, simply because he has nothing to offer, but we're all supposed to believe he has the right intentions. What a joke this guy is?
Jealousy is unattractive, Michael.
So do hispanic women and asian women and every other category of women except white women. Odd that he would put this line in there, though. Some progress is being made.
HA! This particular woman yelled "GO W!" so loud at that point in the debate that I nearly woke up my kids!
Women want to see a man in the White House, not a manscape!
Your vote is so easily turned by giving women another alternative to abortion?? That tactic may work over on DU where the mere mention of 'women's rights' sends the girly men over there cowering in the corner and apologizing for being men. We ain't buying it here!
I'll bet you're one of those 'undecided' voters, right?
I believe everything this guys says now.
Actually, women in "focus groups" really preferred Bush over Kerry last night, and in lopsided majorities.
I wish there were more places like this. For every community that has a Planned Parenthood (or any other human abbetoir) there should be a maternity home. Wouldn't that be giving women a real choice?
Post # 6 got pulled...
Carolinian ...
Nobody by that name.
- - -
The newbie got the stealth zot.
Good riddance.
Over 70% of women think abortion is wrong so I guess any of those 70% of women who vote for Kerry have no real moral fiber.
I'm a woman, and if I had any doubts about Bush they're gone now. Any points Kerry gained last week are gone now too. Women like strong decisive men who are going to provide a safe country in which they can raise their children without fear. Our children's future is what we think about. And there was no doubt who the man was last night. I like the idea about maternity homes for those who don't want abortion but feel they have no choice. i do not believe that abortion will ever cease being an option, so I see no taking away of womens rights. That's nonsense. It would never pass. Group homes and easier adoption processes gives women more choices, and therefore more freedom, not less.
There were some pundits that said that he will impress men with that tactic. But little said anything about women. My wife who is a big undecided was put off by the tactic, but overall thought the President did MUCH better than he did a week ago. She may look past that episode due to the Presidents overall performance. But if he had performed like he did last week, then it likely would have been a defining moment.
Too bad the troll got the zot before I could point out that maternity homes make it easier for women to make the RIGHT choice.
You turn a phrase, into a reversal of womyn's rights dating back a half century? Your vote can turn because you prefer Bush speak in politically correct semantic masturbatory tones? Please. It's not turning back rights, don't take his suggestion out of context, it's actually something that could work well in certain contexts. Go back to your Mary Daly book.
Oooh boy, they realy lhate Bush, don't they?
He 'wishes'! What an obnoxious piece this is! And I absolutely LOVED the way Bush didn't let Gibson brush him off without giving him a chance to rebut kerry. *One* of the crowning moments of last night's debate! SCORE one for the President.
You realize that jellybean was quoting a pro-abortion troll, don't you? Jelly bean didn't originally post that snip, carolinian did.
I see grellis has already pointed out I was quoting Carolinian, so I won't add to your emabarassment (he he), but who the heck is Mary Daly???
I for one actually like a real man and I love swagger...the more Bush pulls it out, the more it hits me at every level...Kerry is a pu*** and that is a way bigger turn off than some good old-fashioned cowboy swagger
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