Finally, I am able to get here. It feels good to be among friends.
doesnt it though? ;^)
From http://jaycost.blogspot.com/. "This is what has happened in the last week..."
3. This does not mean, however, that it is Kerry's race to win. It remains the president's to win, as is evidence by the EV battleground (5 blue states, 3 red states), his job approval (above 50%) and his standing nationwide (again, Bush +2%), his final weapon against Kerry ("more lefty than Teddy"). That Dubya did not fall behind Kerry in the average of the polls says a lot about the stability of the race. His job now is to pull the people who moved toward Kerry away from him, and to solidify his present voting coalition. He can do the latter (which is the minimal task he has for the next month) by not screwing up.
4. This second debate is the best opportunity the president will have to do this first task. However, if he bombs at the debate, do not expect his lead to shrink. He "bombed" last week, and he still holds a lead. Thus, his voters are still voting for him, regardless of how he performs. Screwing up the debates is not the kind of screw-up that will cost him the election. Similarly, Kerry has already gotten as many extra voters as he can from performing well. It is unlikely that the race will shift toward Kerry as a result of this debate.