Unfortunately, it has blown right past $50. There is no "top" right now.
China's only part of the issue. I think the market's pricing in some sort of conflagration in Iran.
Israel will strike before the year is out, IMHO. If Bush wins, it could be before December. The mullahs aren't counting on Sharon raising his sword against them with the so-called "spread out" weapons program. They're going to be very very surprised... and the rest of Middle East will stand by and watch.
It may back down for a while, but it is headed up longterm. No top, but for practicality say $200 in the next ten years. The limit will be when alternative energy is competitive worldwide, which is oil at $200.