while mathematically youre right, it is not realistic to think that would happen. States tend to move together. When one candidate improves his national standing he has improved his state standing by at least 5 points in battleground and swing states. In very partisian states his standing will change by less.
In 1968 a 50-50 two party tie produced a 100 EV vote margin for Nixon but I wouldnt expect it this time.
no a 50-50 tie going into the elction baring any massive fraud wil lgive Bush 278-290 EVs. PA will not be more GOP than the nation as a whole, whcih is what youre saying will happen. PA will be 2-4 points more DEM. For Bush to in PA he'll have to get 53% of the two party vote.
< COMMISH RANT ON >
I am sick and friggin tired of all the sky-is-fallin doom and gloom panty waist whiney ass crybabies infecting this site!!!! Get it through your collective freakin heads - BUSH DID NOT LOSE THE ELECTION BECAUSE OF THIS FRIGGIN DEBATE!!!
First the Whine was--Bush is letting the Dems hog the spotlight in the primariews, then Bush is letting kerry Define him, Bush should fight back, bush should do this, Bush should do that, Bush's campaign sucks, Karl rove is an idiot, I can't believe Bush isn't ... BLAH BLAH F*CKING BLAH!!!!!! You know what - If Bush and his campaign are so bad, Vote for FRIGGIN MICKEY MOUSE THEN!!! If Bush sucks so much, go somewhere and whine to someone who gives a Shiite.
< /Commish Rant>
Now on to this most likely cooked Poll, if it is a real poll...have not seen it on any major news source yet. It means nothing until we see the internals.
People have REPEATEDLY pointed out that the last 2 GALLUP POLLS showing huge Bush leads are suspect because they WAY OVERSAMPLED Republicans. JUST LIKE NEWSWEAK!
My bet, This poll Oversamples Democrats. JUST LIKE NEWSWEAK. Take the internal breakdowns of this poll and the previous REP OVERSAMPLE, change them so they match, and I bet the results will be the same in each poll instead of HUGE BUSH LEAD DOWN TO TIE!!! Anyone want to take that bet? Didn't think so.
Bottom line - The Polls were oversampled to show a BUsh lead, and are now over sampled to show a HUGE KERRY COMEBACK. REALITY - Somewhere in the middle, about a 5% Bush lead -- just like EVERY SINGLE OTHER POLL THAT HAS A STEADY SAMPLING!!!!
So, all you crybaby doom & Gloomers - either suck it up and jopin the game or go home and cry in your beer.
Perhaps. We'll see. But I know in OH, the published polls, from what I'm hearing, are WAY off of the internal stuff, in Bush's favor.
A 50-50 popular vote tie will almost certainly lose FL and give the election to Kerry.
Florida this year is going to vote 1-2% more D, than the nation as a whole: more blacks, hispanic vote split (no Elian this time around), Jewish vote is still 80% for Kerry.
W will need to win the popular vote by at least 1.5% to carry Florida. Actually, getting WV+NV+WI+IA+NM may be easier (that's plan B, I suppose).
Things look bleak - I think Kerry is a favorite at the moment. And I actually thought the debate was a tie!